Tangled Webs

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Ouch

The Scoot-ster got 30 months.

WASHINGTON - Former White House aide I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby was sentenced to 2 ½ years in prison Tuesday for lying and obstructing the CIA leak investigation.

Libby, the former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, stood calmly before a packed courtroom as a federal judge said the evidence overwhelmingly proved his guilt.

“People who occupy these types of positions, where they have the welfare and security of nation in their hands, have a special obligation to not do anything that might create a problem,” U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton said.

That would be on the high end of the sentencing recommendations. Of course he'll serve at club fed, and Walton still hasn't ruled on whether Libby can remain free pending appeal.

I do believe this is the first example of any kind of real accoutability directed at the Bush administration.

Sure feels good.

Now you've gotta wonder if this will motivate Libby to talk, or does he have a pardon/clemency in the bag, or does he just go down like a good firewall/soldier should?

Update: Marcy Wheeler, who has been following the case closely has told Atrios that she doesn't think Libby will be allowed freedom on appeal. Also, here are the "love letters" by all of those who wrote to support Libby, mostly the usual suspects. One was notable. As Atrios notes, "nice signature James Carville". Can you believe it?

Escalation Update

A large piece of news yesterday was that the escalation in Iraq isn't working. Via Juan Cole, a CNN correspondents summary of the Pentagon report just released:

' A top U.S. commander tells CNN that three quarters of Baghdad simply is not under the control of U.S. or Iraqi security forces. Brigadier General Vincent Brooks says just one quarter of Baghdad is in a controlled state. Brooks said control means U.S. and Iraqi forces are able to maintain physical influence over a specific area, preventing its use by the enemy.

It's been three months since the security crackdown began. More than 20,000 U.S. troops have poured into the city. But Brooks says there is still a crucial problem -- the lack of qualified Iraqi police.

In some areas, they are still loyal to death squads and militias. In other areas, there just aren't enough police. In neighborhoods such as Amiriyia and West Rashid, U.S. troops are still having to go back into those areas that they had cleared.

Attacks against U.S. troops in Baghdad are on the rise. Military intelligence officials are analyzing this video from the Islamic State of Iraq claiming to show Russian grenades being thrown at U.S. troops. Analysts say these grenades may be designed to burst into high temperature fires on impact. One official calls it a new threat. '

There's really no surprise here. We, the brilliant, genius and well-trained civilian military analysts could have told you this.

Seriously, Juan Cole points out the interesting fact that now Russians are being blamed for arms sent to Iraq. Funny that this comes on the heals of Putin and Bush's playground scruffle over missles in Europe.

Monday, June 4, 2007

Congressional Dem Approval

Whaddya know. The approval rating for the Congressional Democrats has plunged in the last week.

Funny that. I wonder why?

U.S. Fatalities

A map I'd rather not have to put up (click to enlarge):

Prediction

I'm a huge Sopranos fan. I don't watch them live, but rather wait for them on DVD so I can then obsessively watch the episodes end to end. Thus, I've only seen part one of the last season.

Anyway, the General has made a prediction, a prediction I made last year:

Tony Soprano joins the witness protection program in the last episode.

Since the beginning of the show, Tony Soprano has been moving in one direction .... towards actually have a conscience. Since the show can really only end in one of three ways*, this one seems to make sense.

*1) Tony goes to witness protection, 2) Tony goes to prison, or 3) Tony is killed.

Retaliation

You've really got to wonder just how long Turkey will restrain itself:

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) - Kurdish rebels fired rockets and grenades at a Turkish military outpost Monday, killing seven soldiers in an attack that heightened tension at a time when Ankara has threatened military action against the rebels in northern Iraq.

The army sent helicopter gunships and reinforcements to Tunceli province in southeastern Turkey after guerrillas rammed a vehicle into the military post and opened fire with automatic weapons and rockets, local media reported.

Soldiers returned fire, killing the driver, the military said.

The attack came as Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul told European Union officials visiting Ankara that ``we have every right to take measures against terrorist activities directed at us from northern Iraq.''

Ironically Bush is calling for more restraint by the Turks. You've got to wonder just how much restraint Bush would exercise in the same situation. If Turkey moves into Iraq things could get even more dicey.

Inflation

I know I keep yapping about inflation. But it's an insidious economic fact of life given our nation's economic policies. Consider this:

Even at today's reportedly modest rate of inflation, the damage adds up as the years pass. Consider that what cost $100 in 2000 now, on average, sets one back to the tune of $120, according to the inflation calculator on the Bureau of Labor Statistic's website. In other words, a dollar's worth 20% less today than it was just seven years previous. That disturbing state of affairs has unfolded during what officially hailed as a triumphant suppression of inflationary forces!

Wow. As mentioned, this inflationary period is based on 1) the government's statistics which are suspect at best and 2) a period of time when inflation was under control! In seven short years, a 20% increase in prices. That's astounding. No wonder gold and commodities are a good investment as it appears that the Feds inflationary policies are likely to continue indefinitely.

Time's Army

Can you believe this:

Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-TX) will be a new contributor to Time magazine’s blog Swampland (to balance its cadre of liberals like Joe Klein and Jay Carney).

Swampland indeed.

You've got to be kidding me. The kindest thing I might be able to say about Joe Klein and Jay Carney is that they are right wing moderates. To need Dick Armey, who's about as far right as you can get, to provide "balance" is a huge joke. Is the media ever going to understand that the "liberal media" isn't and that there are true liberals who are fine writers?

It's About Time

"Federal prosecutors are seeking an indictment today against Rep. William J. Jefferson (D-LA) in a longstanding FBI corruption probe centering on allegations that he took bribes to promote high-tech business ventures in Africa," the Washington Post reports.

"If filed, the indictment would cap a long and tumultuous investigation that was stalled for months because of a legal battle over the constitutionality of an FBI raid on Jefferson's office last May. The raid came after the FBI found $90,000 in the freezer of his Capitol Hill home."

Real Unemployment

Ever wonder why the economy can have tepid jobs growth but have a relatively low "unemployment" rate?

Barry gives us an explanation today. It has to do with the so-called participation rate. This statistic measures the number of people who are employable, want to work, and are actively pursuing jobs. The inverse question is how many people are employable, want to work and have stopped looking for a job, i.e. given up for now? Here's what that participation rate looks like:

As you can see, it peaked during the Clinton administration and has been falling through the Bush administration. It had begun to climb, but the most recent report showed a dramatic drop in the participation rate.

Why does this matter? Because folks who don't "participate" don't get counted as unemployed:

It has since started heading lower again. They do not count in the "official" Unemployment Rate statistics. However, BLS actually does measure these folks in their "augmented unemployment rate" -- the jobless people who aren't counted among the officially unemployed. That measure is 7.4%.

So the real unemployment rate is actually 7.4%, not the headline 4.5% or so. That's how you can have lousy jobs growth and a good headline employment number .... you simply don't count a bunch of the unemployed!

Unintended Consequences

This is amazing.

You remember at time as a kid when a thermometer broke and you would play with the mercury? The mercury would slide around, break into pieces and then reform again. No matter what you did, it always found a way to maintain it's integrity. Sounds to me like the Israeli's need to play with some mercury a bit:

The LAT off-leads with the second part of a three-part series on Jerusalem, this installment on the unintended consequences of the wall Israel is building. Described as a "security fence," the wall threatens to cut Palestinians off from Jerusalem and disrupt economic activity. So for both financial and nationalistic reasons, thousands of Palestinians are moving into Jerusalem instead of staying put, as they likely would have done were the wall never built. It is expected to be complete early next year.

Americans would do well to pay attention to this little lesson in the Middle East and Mexico as well. People are passionate, ingenious and dauntless. Walls are stupid and simply do not work. If mountains, rivers and oceans haven't been able to stop migration, what makes anyone think a little bit of concrete will do anything.

Sunday, June 3, 2007

Keystone Cops

You know, it's bad enough that the international standing of the U.S. has fallen dramatically during Bush because of his policies. But can you imagine how the U.S. must look with crap like this going on as well?

The same top Bush administration neoconservatives who leap-frogged Washington's foreign policy establishment to topple Saddam Hussein nearly pulled off a similar coup in U.S.-China relations -- creating the potential of a nuclear war over Taiwan, a top aide to former Secretary of State Colin Powell says.

Lawrence B. Wilkerson, the U.S. Army colonel who was Powell's chief of staff through two administrations, said in little-noted remarks early last month that "neocons" in the top rungs of the administration quietly encouraged Taiwanese politicians to move toward a declaration of independence from mainland China -- an act that the communist regime has repeatedly warned would provoke a military strike.

The top U.S. diplomat in Taiwan at the time, Douglas Paal, backs up Wilkerson's account, which is being hotly disputed by key former defense officials.

Ok, this is typical risky/craziness advocated by the neocons nuts. But then check out this comment by Steve Benen:

As CQ's Jeff Stein reported, there was an awkward Keystone Kops routine playing out during the early years of Bush's first term. "The Defense Department, with Feith, Cambone, Wolfowitz [and] Rumsfeld, was dispatching a person to Taiwan every week, essentially to tell the Taiwanese that the alliance was back on," Wilkerson said, "essentially to tell Chen Shui-bian, whose entire power in Taiwan rested on the independence movement, that independence was a good thing."

In turn, Powell would dispatch his own envoy "right behind that guy, every time they sent somebody, to disabuse the entire Taiwanese national security apparatus of what they'd been told by the Defense Department."

Keystone cops indeed. As more information comes out we are continually getting verification that no one has been driving the bus. Bush is incurious, lazy and easily manipulated. The government has reflected the chaos that is his personality and style.

Go Read Digby

Digby does a nice job outlining some of the ~~lies~~ spin that Karl Rove has pushed about a growing Republican majority. Karl contends that America is getting more religious and entrepreneurial which he claims works in the favor of Republicans. If it is true, it *might* help Republicans .... or not .... who knows.

But then there's the rest of the story ......

Unlike the media (in this case Jeffrey Goldberg of The New Yorker) who routinely swallows Karl's bilge with glee, Digby proves that it's just that .... bilge. Personally, I was particularly interested in the stats about religion. Given all the media hype since the 2000 election you'd think Americans are all becoming Aimee Semple McPherson. It's actually quite the opposite.

Gasoline Updates

I have periodically put up this chart of gasoline supplies in the U.S.:

As you can see from the latest chart, supplies are finally increasing, which is normal for this time of year. However, what's interesting is how low the inventory is, and that much of the increase in inventory is due to gasoline imports. It's bad enough that we import oil, but now we also are importing gasoline like crazy. Talk about gasoline gluttons.

I would look for gasoline prices to become flat for awhile, barring some international disaster or hurricane.

Some Perspective

Just so you know, there's this about the possibility of blowing up a whole city via it's fuel pumping station:

Yesterday evening TPM Reader PD wrote in a note that, in addition to a more detailed technical explanation, "An explosion at a jet fuel terminal, which is a pumping station, would have no effect on the fuel "artery," no more than lighting your stove has any effect on your natural gas pipeline."

Obviously blowing up a pumping station would not be a good thing, but it would not be catastrophic like Wolfie and cableies would like you to believe. And in this case, it's looks about as likely as me sprouting wings and flying .......

Manana

In honor of Mr. Talabani, I present you this:

Pacified Baghdad

You can't have an escalation without someone getting hurt:

“An Interior Ministry official, who did not want to be named because he was not authorised to release the figures, said 1,944 civilians were killed in May, a 29 percent hike over April. At least 174 soldiers and policemen were killed in the same period. … Mortar attacks in the capital are becoming deadlier and car bombs remain common.”

And you know that these figures are lowballed. There are a lot of bodies that simply "disappear".

Under The Radar

I haven't written about it in awhile, but the tensions in northern Iraq continue apace. The Turks are threatening to pursue Kurdish insurgents in northern Iraq, Sunni Arabs and Kurds are tense with each other, and (as usual) the U.S. is trying to stop the whole thing from blowing up.

An example of these tensions of the destruction of a major bridge from Baghdad into Kurdistan yesterday:

The killing and the bridge bombing reflected rising tensions in the oil-rich area between Kurds and Sunni insurgents who oppose Kurdish plans to make the area part of the north’s Kurdish-controlled region.

The Iraqi Constitution calls for a referendum on the issue this year and Iraqi and American officials have predicted that violence will increase before the vote.

Increasing attacks are likely to heighten tensions with Iraq’s northern neighbor, Turkey, which has complained bitterly in recent weeks that Iraq has done nothing to control a Kurdish militant group, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, in southern Turkey. Turkey says that the United States, its NATO ally, should do more to force Iraq to control the Kurds.

Kurdish leaders have rejected the demands. On Saturday, Masood Barzani, president of Iraq’s Kurdish area, said, “Turkey does not have the right to interfere” in Kirkuk.

Let's hope this area keeps the pot merely simmering. A boil over would be devastating.

Phony

This is what happens when you spend too much time listening to DLC political consultants:

According to the Post, Hillary Clinton is looking to emphasize her Midwestern roots—and her love of jalapeño pizza—as she strives to find a common touch to back up her solid lead in the polls.

Sure. This type of strategy worked really really well for Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry. Republicans easily fall for crap like this, but most of the country sees right through it.

Going After Mahdi

Two bits of news this morning in Iraq. First, the U.S./Iraqi forces launched a large offensive against Moqtada al Sadr. Since he's the largest and most autonomous oppositional force, and ostensibly an ally of al Maliki, you have to wonder about the wisdom of such an offensive. It seems to me that there's quite enough problems with Sunni insurgents without picking a fight with a very very large group of well armed and well organized Sadr followers. This would be an on-the-ground example of how military solutions don't solve political problems.

But the second part of the story was quite interesting. Buried down in the story was this tidbit:

The clashes in Diwaniyah erupted Saturday evening after Iraqi soldiers and police cordoned off a market in search of two senior Mahdi Army figures wanted by U.S.-led coalition forces in connection with sectarian killings.

Maj. Gen. Othman Ali, commander of the Iraq army's 8th Division, said his forces captured one of the men, but he escaped when fellow militiamen came to his aid.

Is that a Mahdi miliaman who came to his aid or an Iraqi army member? You know what my guess would be.

Imagine the frustration for American forces (and the families of the dead and wounded) to implement a major operation and have the targets be apprehended and then "escape".

Just another FUBAR day in Iraq.

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