Tangled Webs

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Two Lessons

I come away from the New Hampshire Democratic dust-up with two lessons:

1. Support for the Democratic candidates is thin. In this case, the media gets it right. Democratic voters could basically live with any of the top three candidates. In fact, Democratic candidates could live with a salamander as the candidate as long as it's not Bush or a Republican.

2. You can't count on young voters. Despite the polls having been accurate in predicting Obama's numbers, a surge by young people just didn't occur as it did in Iowa. If Obama wants to win, he needs support of the old foggies like me.

For once, I have to agree with something Karl Rove wrote:

"The dirty secret is it is hard to accurately poll a primary. The unpredictability of who will turn out and what the mix of voters will be makes polling a primary election like reading chicken entrails–ugly, smelly and not very enlightening."

The media is writing an obit for John Edwards. I figure that Edwards is in it for awhile. What's he got to lose? If he doesn't win in South Carolina, then at worst he has some playing cards for the convention. The only reason I can see that he might get out earlier is to torpedo Hillary, if he should choose to do so. Plus, playing a kingmaker role would put him in a great position down the road.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Gasbaggery

This is ridiculous.

As Eric Alterman said today, news punditry is the only business that is consistently wrong, delivery a crappy product, and rewarded for it. Exhibit A, Tweety:

Matthews: I think the Hillary appeal has always been about the mix of toughness and sympathy. Let’s not forget, and I’ll be brutal, the reason she’s a US Senator, the reason she’s a candidate for President, the reason she may be a front runner, is that her husband messed around. […]

That’s how she got to be a Senator from New York. We keep forgetting it. She didn’t win it on her merit, she won because everybody felt, “My God, this woman stood up under humiliation,” right? That’s what happened.

Added: Exhibits B and C:

I Confess

In my predictions about the outcome of the NH primary, I fell in a trap. It's a common trap of which you'd think I'd be aware. I fell for the media's conventional wisdom based on flawed polls that Clinton would lose.

Wrong.

Now the big CW is that Clinton staged a "comeback". Keith Olberman (the only one of the gasbags worth a dime) asked the question, "can someone who has been the front-runner and presumed nominee "comeback""? Only if you believe the media hype.

My theory is that Clinton "held on". She's had a large lead in NH previously. With the time between New Hampshire and Iowa so short, I simply think the libertarian based voting public saw Obama as a threat and too liberal with most of the crossover vote from conservatives going to Clinton. Also women in NH, perhaps a bit more feminist than in Iowa, went with a woman candidate.

No matter the punditry and opinions, the fact is the media got it totally wrong .... again. I haven't really watched much of the cable news coverage for a long time, but watching them last night was like having your fingernails torn out. The likes of Timmah Russert gasbagging away made me want to gag, particularly when he looked like he was going to have an orgasm over the whole horserace thing. And the topper was Tweety Matthews opining that NH was the result of the "Bradley effect" whereby white folk simply can't bring themselves to vote for a black man (I have images in my mind of a Dr. Strangelove situation where a white guy fights with his hand as he tries to pull the lever for Obama). These folks don't know any more than yours truly (and you) about what's going on in the electorate. I'd have been better off putting on an old movie.

Well, now it's onward and upward to the next primaries. Ironically, a system designed to have a nominee early may actually end up with a floor fight at the convention.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Surging Candidate

If I said to you, there's a Democratic candidate for President who is really surging right now, who would you say that is?

Read it and weep:

Isn't there a story held in this chart?

A Day In The Life

Just another day in paradise for the Iraqi's:

After I made sure that my daughter was only shocked and dazed, but unhurt, I leaned back to take a breath.

Her transport had to take his car to the fitter for some minor repairs and I was giving her a lift to school. One checkpoint after another all the way to a central main road where we could relax a little from the bumper-to-bumper lines of cars. As we sped along (50km/hr) feeling the freedom, suddenly an American convoy emerged from a side street at full speed. Terrified of getting too close, the first car braked so hard it swirved; the second slammed into it; I was the third ... and there were two more.

There we stood, each driver with a look of frustration on his face - who to blame?? Who to shout at to relieve the tention?? Who to haggle with for repair money?

We looked at each other, and at our smashed cars - and started laughing uncontrollably until the tears started to flow, "Alhamdu lillah assalama (thank God for your safety)" was all we could manage to say.

By that time the convoy was long gone.

If It's Not Covered, Did It Happen?

I've not seen anything about this story in the U.S. media. It likely got a short blurb, but it certainly hasn't gotten the attention that it deserves:

BAGHDAD - The recent killing of two U.S. soldiers by their Iraqi colleague has raised disturbing questions about U.S. military relations with Iraqi forces.

On Dec. 26, an Iraqi soldier opened fire on U.S. soldiers accompanying him during a joint military patrol in the northern Iraqi city Mosul. He killed the U.S. captain and another sergeant, and wounded three others, including an Iraqi interpreter.

Conflicting versions of the killing have arisen. Col. Hazim al-Juboory, uncle of the attacker, Kaissar Saady al-Juboory, told IPS that his nephew at first watched the U.S. soldiers beat up an Iraqi woman. When he asked them to stop, they refused, so he opened fire.

I don't even have to read what the Pentagon is saying, or the right-wing noise machine. And who knows what the truth really is in the situation.

But it doesn't really matter.

The perception by Iraqi's is that this guy was a hero for protecting Iraqi women. And it's just something like this that could spark the entire country to violently turn against Americans.

Meanwhile, Over There

Things seem to be heating up a bit:

In a further sign of a determined new year's counter-attack by the radical Salafis and/or neo-Baathists, a wave of bombings and kidnappings swept Iraq on Monday, leaving 24 dead, dozens wounded.

Don't expect to hear about it in our media until/unless a lot of Americans start to die. They're too busy watching Britney, Hillary and (fill in the blank with Republican).

New Hampshuuuur

My predictions for tonight:

Dems: Obama wins by a relatively comfortable margin. Hillary and Edwards are close and all three stay in the race. Obama is going to have to beat Hillary on Super Tuesday to knock her out. Edwards is young and will, despite losing in 2008, be proven correct and ultimately will be President.

Repubs: McCain wins, Romney comes in an anemic second and Huckabee might as well have saved his time and money. Huckabee will now fade away, back to where he started. McCain and Romney will continue to do battle and it may get very close. In the end, Republicans won't like whoever they end up with.

A Pretty Good Argument

Via Barry Ritholtz (click to enlarge):

That's a pretty good argument.

I would contend that even if we're in a recession, it's a mild one so far and likely to remain mild. An unemployment rate of 5% (6% used to be considered "full employment) is not that bad and not a big incentive for consumers to stop spending. Put another way, there's just not much fear in the public right now.

Added: Remember when the economy was kinda sorta strong and we needed tax cuts? Now that the economy is weaker guess what. That's right, we need more tax cuts!

Monday, January 7, 2008

Phoney Politicing

There's only one problem with this kind of faux personal moment ..... it works with a lot of voters who are stupid enough to think it's genuine:

HENNIKER, NH -- The Clintons had a reverse Rudy-Judi moment this morning.

During a meeting with some local undecided voters, a cellphone starting ringing. "Is that mine?" Bill Clinton said, realizing it was. "It's probably her." He answered, but found no one there. "Only Hillary has my number, it couldn't be anyone else."

Sure enough, the phone rang again. "I'm at your meeting here," he explained, causing the crowd gathered at a local restaurant to roar. Clinton appeared to be listening intently, then said: "I'll tell them that. Okay, I love you."

Earlier, Clinton told the crowed that this election promises a choice for them. "Hillary doesn't think she's entitled to the presidency," he said. "She just wants you to make a choice, a knowing choice."

Pakistan

Many of the "in the know" policy wonks who discuss Pakistan often cite that it's highly unlikely that Pakistan would become an Islamic state. I wonder if they've seen this?

WASHINGTON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Most Pakistanis want their country to be a democratic Islamic state but are deeply distrustful of the United States and its war on terrorism, according to a poll released on Sunday.

Funded by the U.S. Institute of Peace, or USIP, the poll was taken in the nuclear-armed nation before President Pervez Musharraf's six-week state of emergency and the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto last month.

The results, released about six weeks before elections scheduled for Feb. 18, show that a large majority of Pakistanis see democracy as fully compatible with Islam, the pollsters said. Democracy ranked especially high among the 60 percent of respondents who wanted Muslim-based Sharia law to play a larger role in legal affairs.

"It shows there is no major Western-oriented secular sub-group in Pakistan. People want more Islam. They don't think Pakistan is pious enough or that Islamic values are adequately expressed in daily life," said Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, a non-profit group affiliated with the University of Maryland that conducted the poll for USIP.

Ooops!

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Iowa and Onward

I've not written anything about Iowa or it's results yet. Partly the reason is because I think Iowa's importance is a bit overblown. But having said that, there did seem to be a "populist" sentiment in the vote outcome.

On the Republican side, I don't think Huckabee is going anywhere. He's a regional candidate that appealed to a strong religious right sector of Iowa conservatives at a time when they have no one else. I think he'll now fade fast. However, Romney's thumping really does strengthen McCain's hand.

On the Democratic side, I think that Kucinich and Richardson(?) torpedoed Edwards by recommending their second choice caucus voters go for Obama. Not sure why they did that, but it certainly made a difference in the outcome. The media is eating up an "Obama momentum" theme, but I think it was really an inside job on Edwards. Either way, it did the trick and Obama has momentum. For me, Obama's win was like kissing your cousin. Obama's not Hillary, but he's also not Edwards.

Oh well, onward to New Hampshuuurrr ...... where I'll predict (barring someone farts on stage during the debates tonight) a McCain win and a very very close race between Hillary and Obama.

Imagine

Can you just imagine the impact of something like this on troop morale?

BAGHDAD - An Iraqi soldier allegedly shot dead two American troops while they were patrolling together north of the capital, the U.S. military and an Iraqi official said Saturday. The Iraqi official said the suspect has links to militant groups.

Three other U.S. soldiers and a civilian interpreter were wounded in the Dec. 26 attack, the military said in a statement. The shooting occurred as American and Iraqi soldiers were trying to establish a combat outpost in Ninevah province in northern Iraq.

I have nothing to base it on, but I "sense" things heating up in Iraq again.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Investigate!

Maybe you've heard that Mukasey has decided to investigate the destruction of the CIA torture tapes (note: not the torture on the tapes, but the loss of the tapes themselves). And it looks like he may even have appointed someone to do the job who actually can. But frankly, I have very serious doubts that 1) anything will be done in time to matter electorally and 2) anything of any real accountable substance will come out of it .... except maybe a CIA version on Lindy England.

Goner?

Is Fredricks of Hollywood a goner? Looks like it.

Except, how can you be a goner when you never were there?

Fine, Just Fine!

We all know that the Iraq was is won .... right? Except it turns out that it's won if you don't count the deaths of our little brown Iraqi brothers. Oh, and if you don't count the political situation where all sides ~~are reloading~~ are refusing to negotiate.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Department Of Irony

Josh Marshall:

You know things aren't good when you see a headline about Pakistani refugees fleeing to Afghanistan.

Tools

Are they just now figuring out how they were used?

Former 9/11 Commission Co-Chairman Thomas Kean and Lee Hamilton write in The New York Times today that the CIA “obstructed our investigation” when it destroyed interrogation videotapes and “failed to respond to our lawful requests” about “the kind of information that would have been contained in such videotapes.”

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

We Can Only Hope

An InsiderAdvantage tracking poll in Iowa shows a statistical tie between Sen. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in the Democratic presidential race with Sen. Barack Obama starting to lag.

Clinton leads with 30%, followed by Edwards at 29%, and Obama at 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.4%.

Important finding: Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

"Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be: Edwards 41%, Clinton 34% and Obama 25%."

Then there's this interesting quote:

"If the crowd numbers are that huge, and ours are this small, and they're going to kick our ass then there's no reason to explain it. Just show up and kick our ass. It's better if you don't say anything about it. Anytime anybody starts throwing those kinds of things around, it's because they're in deep shit."

-- Edwards strategist Joe Trippi, quoted by The Nation, suggesting Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is in trouble.

Personally, my wallet is in the warm up circle. But if Edwards wins, I start paying off.

The Case

If you've been paying attention, then you likely don't really need convincing that Musharraf was behind the murder of Benazir Bhutto. But just in case you're interested, Juan Cole details the latest revelations and proof that it was a government assassination.

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