Maybe He's Got It
Via Josh Marshall's site:
Friday, February 8, 2008
2012
Digby catches Tom DeLay mouthing the meme after the 2008 election:
Do you get the feeling that the conservatives are gaming this thing? I knew that you would.Yep.
They know they are going to lose. They will blame the loss on the fact that McCain wasn't a real conservative (just like Bush.) They know when to fall back and regroup. They're already playing for the next election.
Everybody sing: Conservatism can never fail, it can only be failed.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
I Rest My Case
A new Time magazine poll compares potential general election match ups:According to the poll director, the difference is that "independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator."
- Obama 48%, McCain 41%
- Clinton 46%, McCain 46%
Interestingly, Democratic voters favor Clinton over Obama for the Democratic nomination by a margin of 48% to 42%.
Back To The Good Old Days
Read it and weep:
The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).
"Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece. That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.
"So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.
"Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates. And then the super delegates decide this thing. That's the math."
Oily CW
Oil prices have been modestly falling over the last month or so. The conventional wisdom is that if the U.S. goes into recession, petroleum usage will decline causing less demand.
I don't agree.
First off, the U.S. is a service economy driven by consumer spending, not manufacturing. The energy use profiles of those two economies are very different. For example, it costs just as much to light up a Macy's whether it's busy or not, while if you need to manufacture fewer cars, you close plants.
But there's another more important reason that I think a U.S. recession won't matter much:
My view is that people underestimate the seriousness of the energy situation. We are only finding oil at a rate equivalent to replacing the oil production that erodes every year as a result of the existing wells getting tired. In addition to that, China and India are consuming less than two barrels of oil per person per year while we consume 26 barrels, Western Europe consumes 13 to 15 barrels, and Japan, Korea the same amount.
As China and India increase their consumption, even if the two and a half billion people there only increase their consumption by a quarter of a barrel of oil per year, there’s no way the world can meet that demand. So I think the price of oil is going a lot higher.
Get It On
Speaking of a filibuster proof Senate, if Congress doesn't get off it's duff and approve a stimulus package, I think it will be very very bad for the Democrats.
Lather, Rinse, Repeat
We're doing a swell job of training Iraqi insurgents:
USA Today leads with a dispatch from Mosul, where U.S. troops will probably have more trouble rooting out al-Qaida in Iraq because the militants have apparently learned from their mistakes and are cultivating better relationships with regular citizens. In Mosul, al-Qaida militants warn civilians before bomb attacks and are not enforcing strict Islamic laws, which is a marked contrast with how they acted in other parts of the country. This makes it less likely that the residents of Iraq's third-largest city would want to join the U.S. military to fight the insurgents.Anyone who thinks the war will be over before American leave is delusional.
I'm Sure Now
A lot of us have been wondering who would be the better candidate in November. Now that we know the Rethugicans are going to choose grandpa Eisenhower Goldwater McCain, and given the Super Tuesday results, I think I can easily now make a choice.
Obama.
Here's why. First, his youth will be a terrific contrast to McCain, who has to keep his 96 year old mother around to make him look young. Next, Obama has shown the ability to compete with independent voters (see: 2/5/08, Missouri, Colorado) which will be the stronghold for McCain. Either Democrat can win New York, but who can win Ohio, Florida or Virginia to name a few? Finally, Obama is much more likely to further (I say further because it's already electrified) energize the Democrats to work for him, support him with money (he's raised $7 Million since Tuesday as contrasted with this.), and get out to vote. Meanwhile, McCain is going to have a struggle to get out his base of conservative support causing him to run a very conservative general election campaign.
These elements are not unimportant as we look forward to not only a Democratic presidency, but perhaps a much strong coat-tail affect down ballot (a filibuster proof Senate anyone?). Therefore, despite some earlier reservations, I will fully support Obama for President.
Just a quick postscript on Super Tuesday. I really think the reason that the reliable polls showing Obama winning California and yet he lost (in the popular vote anyway, he still came away with a healthy dose of delegates) was due to early voting. A full 20% of ballots were cast early with Clinton putting in a massive get-out-the-vote effort on absentee voting. There are rumors of polling places entertaining a lot of voters who wanted to change their absentee vote, but were turned away (you can't). Without that, I think at a minimum, it would have been much much closer.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
To The Moon Alice!
Good thing I'm allergic to it:
Might be time to dig out all those 80's movies about down-trodden midwestern farmers. You know, for nostalgia sake because today they're rolling in as many dollars as bushels. And inflation? We ain't got no inflation.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Polls
Here's the latest on the polls. This particular chart is plotting the averages of all the polls for the Dems:
As I've said over the past week, it's a matter of momentum (Obama) over holding on (Clinton). Whatever happens, I don't think Super Tuesday is going to finish it for either Democratic candidate.
Seems to me that this point made by Josh Marshall is most salient and pushes me to lean toward an Obama "upset":
One point to keep in mind as we watch the results tonight. A lot will depend on whether the race has now shaped up with both Clinton and Obama and roughly-matched and known contenders, or whether, because of her history and name recognition, Clinton is the de facto incumbent vs. Obama the challenger. It could make a very, very big difference because a number of the polls we're seeing have high undecideds. And it is a very reliable rule of thumb that undecideds break for the challenger.Given the Edwards factor, which is clearly showing up in Obama's numbers, I think the incumbent rule will be very operative today.
The Budget
Bush has released his new proposed budget. It has the usual Republican garbage, i.e. cuts in everything but defense, but it also has a huge ongoing deficit. There's a whole lot of argument about the deficit and the growing national debt with some saying that it's not a real problem because of a growing economy, and some saying it ultimately will catch up to us and bankrupt the country. I tend to fall in the later camp:
Getting a handle on what such a huge number means is not easy, but the WP does a good job of putting it in perspective: "Interest on the debt next year will total $260 billion, about what will be spent by the departments of Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, and Justice combined."I hope I'm wrong but fear I'm right that this can't go on forever. At some point the American people are going to have to have the guts to decide to actually pay for what they get, whether it's discretionary programs, medicare, or defense.
Why McCain Will Be Easy
This is, like, part 20 in an ongoing series:
The WP's Howard Kurtz interviews Rush Limbaugh, who makes it clear that if McCain is the Republican nominee he would rather see a Democrat in the White House. "If I believe the country will suffer with either Hillary, Obama or McCain, I would just as soon the Democrats take the hit."
Guantanamo
To it's credit, the NY Times does a story today of the first Guantanamo prisoner to die of nature causes (cancer):
The story makes pretty clear that Abdul Razzaq Hekmati was detained by mistake, and it chronicles how U.S. officials made little effort to confirm the story of a man who was considered a war hero in Afghanistan. The most amazing aspect of the story is that it seems his identity could have been confirmed by at least two high-ranking officials in the Afghan government. Although "both men are well known to the American authorities in Afghanistan," the military tribunal said they couldn't be located. Of course, the main theme that runs through the story is that if he couldn't get a fair hearing, then what chance is there for the other 180 detainees who have challenged their detentions?America. Land of the free, home of the brave.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Mo
You can almost feel the mo' for Obama. I wonder if it will be enough, soon enough. But here in California, if Obama does win it could be a tide changer.
Ads
By far, I thought the talking stain was the best super bowl ad. You can watch it here.
The other ads can be watched here.
I Wonder
Will the media be as quick at condemnation for this as they were for the alleged use of retarded women as suicide bombers?
In other Iraq news, the papers point out that the U.S. military accidentally killed nine people in an airstrike south of Baghdad. At least some of the victims were members of the predominantly Sunni Arab security forces known as the Concerned Local Citizens.Will we see the tsk tsking of Charles Gibson tonight?
Sunday, February 3, 2008
It's Gonna Be Close
Super Tuesday is going to be very very close for Dems. California is actually going to have a role in choosing!
State by state poll results:
AlabamaArizona
- Obama 47, Clinton 47 (SurveyUSA)
California
- Clinton 43, Obama 41 (McClatchy-MSNBC)
- Clinton 46, Obama 41 (Rasmussen)
Delaware
- Clinton 36, Obama 34 (Field Poll)
- Obama 45, Clinton 41 (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby)
- Clinton 45, Obama 36 (McClatchy-MSNBC)
Georgia
- Clinton 44, Obama 42 (American Research Group)
Illinois
- Obama 48, Clinton 28 (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby)
- Obama 47, Clinton 41 (McClatchy-MSNBC)
Missouri
- Obama 55, Clinton 24 (Chicago Tribune)
New Jersey
- Clinton 47, Obama 41 (McClatchy-MSNBC)
- Clinton 44, Obama 43 (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby)
- Obama 44, Clinton 42 (American Research Group)
- Clinton 48, Obama 44 (SurveyUSA)
New York
- Clinton 46, Obama 39 (McClatchy-MSNBC)
- Clinton 50, Obama 36 (Monmouth University/Gannett)
- Clinton 43, Obama 42 (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby)
Oklahoma
- Clinton 54, Obama 38 (Marist College)
Clinton 41, Obama 17 (Tulsa World)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
