Pierced
Charlie is one pissed off dude today. And rightly so. I was going to excerpt, but you're really better off just going to it.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Irony
Stagflation in motion:
This chart shows what has happened to mortgage rates. You'll note that they are actually higher today than the first of the year.
If you're like me, you might think this doesn't make sense. The Fed has been "cutting interest rates" like crazy right? But here's the problem (bear with me a minute). The rates the Fed cuts are very short term rates. Long bonds (primarily the ten year treasury) are the bonds upon which mortgage interest rates are based. Those rates are set by the market and what the bond traders (the market) are telling us is that inflation is the concern and that future interest rates will have to go up to stop inflation. When traders feel that way, they don't buy long bonds which causes the "yield" (interest rate) to go up in order to attract buyers.
So, ironically, while Bernanke and crew are studiously lowering interest rates to help the housing crisis, it ain't working.
Just Waiting For This
You knew we'd see a story like this sooner or later:
The Wall Street Journal leads its world-wide newsbox with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's harsh criticism of any new plan that uses government money to help struggling homeowners. In an interview with the paper, Paulson characterized the proposals as "bailouts" and said the administration's market-based approach would be enough to prevent a crisis in foreclosures. Democrats are working on several plans to help homeowners, and Paulson's comments emphasized the opposition they'll face from the White House on the issue.The hypocrisy is rich. The government is working in overdrive to provide bailouts to the
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
St. John Part Deux
Digby reminds us of how Rovian politics really work. Remember all the crap about the nutbar who introduced McCain trashing Hussein Obama?
In this case, McCain not only gets these insults against both Democratic candidates aired over and over again, he makes himself look good for "repudiating" it. It's "out there" which is the best of all possible worlds.Yep. We all fall for it and the media laps it up like a thirsty dog.
The media have been playing those insults of Obama and Clinton over and over again on a loop --- along with that straight talking flyboy angrily dismissing the comments. The media gave him high marks for his integrity, as usual. Today, they are calling it a brilliant "triangulization" strategy. Talk about a win-win-win for McCain.It's enough to make you a cynic.
And Here's ......
Timmeh! In all his stupid glory!
Gotcha!
Let's see. If a dog shits in the woods, and no one hears it, does it smell?
Stellar Guy
After McCain's slap down of the right-wing nutbar introducer yesterday, Digby thought it good to take us down memory lane of some of McCain's greatest hits of good taste!
At the campaign event on Monday, the woman asked McCain, "How do we beat the bitch?"Or this one that the nutbar said and McCain didn't repudiate:
McCain laughed along with the crowd as he said, "May I give the translation?"
"That's an excellent question," he added. "I respect Senator Clinton. I respect anyone who gets the nomination of the Democratic Party."
McCain said Wednesday he's sure the New York senator understands.
"Senator Clinton and I have a very good relationship," he said. "She understands I've always treated her with respect, and I'm sure that's been the reaction of her campaign."
[...]
"I can't dictate what other people say _ that's not my business," he said. "Nor is it an appropriate role for me to play in a gathering at a restaurant, and if anybody thinks that I should, then I think they have the wrong idea of what gatherings are all about.
How about Condoleeza Rice and Madeline Albright, who looks like death warmed over. I think there's a big difference between Condi and Madeline.Then there's my personal favorite from eight years ago:
Earlier this month, at a Republican Senate fund-raiser, McCain told a downright nasty joke making fun of Janet Reno, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Chelsea Clinton.Nice. But, how about more recently:
The fact that McCain had made the tasteless joke was reported in major newspapers, as was the vain attempt by his press secretary to initially deny what McCain had done. But in several major newspapers, the joke itself was kept a secret. When McCain subsequently apologized to President Clinton, the Washington Post, in its personality section, noted the apology but said the joke "was too vicious to print."
The Los Angeles Times, in its Life & Style section, provided an oblique rendering of the joke that did not fully convey its ugliness. When Maureen Dowd penned a column in the New York Times about the joke, she wrote that McCain "is so revered by the press that his disgusting jape was largely nudged under the rug." But Dowd chose not to relay the joke, either.
The joke did appear in McCain's hometown paper, the Arizona Republic, and the Associated Press did report the joke in full, so everyone in the press had access to McCain's words. But by censoring themselves, the Post, the Times and others helped McCain deflect flak and preserved his status as a Republican presidential contender.
Salon feels its readers deserve the unadulterated truth. Though no tape of McCain's quip has yet emerged, this is what he reportedly said:
"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno."
McCain made the reference to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton after touring USC Upstate’s nursing school and seeing a training mannequin.Yeah. John McCain. The gentleman, straight-talking class act.
“I was very glad to meet the dummy, named ‘Hillary,’” McCain said to laughter. “Is that the name?”
Actually, the dummy, or human simulator, doesn’t have a name.
Vacant
I didn't watch the Democratic debate last night. But from all that I've read, I guess Timmeh "pumpkinhead" Russert made a complete ass of himself. Which means, things were normal.
Trouble In Hate Land
Looks like John McCain has dissipated all that good feeling the NY Times story created in the base:
Karl Rove suggested that these guys need to cool it or they'll appear "bigoted". Well ..... they are aren't they?In Ohio yesterday, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) appropriately apologized after right-wing talk radio host Bill Cunningham opened his campaign rally by pejoratively referring to Sen. Barack Obama’s middle name Hussein while calling him “a hack.” “I did not know about these remarks, but I take responsibility for them. I repudiate them,” McCain told reporters.
McCain’s repudiation stung Cunningham, who bellowed against the senator on his show later in the day. Cunningham claimed McCain “threw me under the bus for the national media” and then said that he would now “throw” his “support behind Hillary Clinton.”
Cunningham’s “hate radio” brethren, such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, joined him in indignation over McCain’s apology.
...
Right-wing radio host Mark Levin, who also blogs for National Review, called McCain a “loser” for distancing himself from Cunningham’s caustic comments
....
Because he won’t stoop to their low rhetorical level, right-wing radio is now telling McCain that he can “say good-bye to any hope of winning over the conservative base.” Apparently McCain doesn’t have enough hate for “hate radio.”
Popcorn anyone?
Ridiculousness
Does anyone really believe any of this? Remember, the LA Times is noted for crappy polls:
Whoever ends up winning the nomination will face a tough time against Sen. John McCain, notes the Los Angeles Times in its lead story. A new in-house nationwide poll shows 61 percent of voters view McCain favorably. McCain holds an advantages in several fronts as voters are more likely to rate him as the strongest leader who has "the right experience" and would be better at protecting the country and dealing with Iraq. On the economy, McCain gets higher marks than Obama but not Clinton. In a hypothetical matchup, McCain gets more support than either of the two Democratic contenders, leading Clinton by 6 percentage points and Obama by 2 points, which is within the poll's margin of error.The key question asked was probably something like, "would you vote for that sweet boy John McCain or one of the evil twins, Clinton and Obama?
This is a non-story on so many levels, yet a very large national daily prints it.
If we are to have a chance of correcting the excesses of the past 7 years, it will only come through a resounding thumping of all Republicans in 2008. The message has to come through that the behavior of Republicans, not just Bush, has been self-destructive to the party. Without that, what's to prevent everyone from adopting the crappy governance tactics of the past two administrations?
Mortgages
We've had a number of recent interest rate cuts. Therefore, mortgage interest rates should be declining. Right?
Ooops:
This is a problem in stagflation conditions. Because inflation is a concern, bond traders are selling longer term bonds because of future higher interest rates that will be needed to stop inflation. This means that the 10 year bond, which is a key benchmark for mortgage rates, has a higher interest rate than before the cuts!
It's going to take some good inflation news before interest rates begin to cool. And I just don't see that happening in the near term.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
2008 Results
Would be really funny ..... if it wasn't possible.
Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early
Background Info
Here is a pretty good column that outlines the situation going forward with Clinton and Obama vis a vis' a convention floor fight. Tomansky tackles the possibilities of a fight over Florida and Michigan as well as the Democratic Party's players who will be making key decisions.
PPI
If you're a regular reader, this won't be news. Today's Producer Price Index (measure of inflation at the producer level) was up a whopping 1% in January. That would be an annual 12% rate of inflation. And all of it happening during an economic slowdown.
What's that word used to describe the situation?
Monday, February 25, 2008
A Little Here, A Little There
If you're like me, you don't spend much time looking at the nuances of the spread between the yield on two year bonds vs. ten year. But some people do, and for very good reason. Lately, the "curve" on yield has been steepening.
So, why do I care? Because it's yet another example of how the government commits corporate welfare:
Folks should understand that a steepened yield curve typically does not happen by accident.Let me put this is laymen terms. The Fed makes money available to the big money boys (not you and me) at an increasing lower interest rate (short term rates). Those
Given our current financial climate, this might be seen as a clearly orchestrated move on the part of monetary authorities to allow banks to fatten their profits [by raising - borrowing - short term funds to lend longer term ‘risk free’ to the government] at public expense to help the banks repair their battered balance sheets.
There are some market observers who would describe this change of slope in the interest rate curve as the ‘socialization’ of bank losses.
I wonder what would happen if I went to the Fed and asked for $100K at prime (with collateral of course) and then purchased a ten year bond, making a totally risk free 1%? It would probably close down the Fed from everyone laughing so hard.
Good Job Shrub
Congrats Shrub, we're back where we started.
Must be time to elect an adult to clean up the mess:
Simple Proof
Republicans are routinely going around the cable B.S. Fests and complaining that Democrats won't give Bush credit for "improvement" in Iraq. Michael Kinsley answers this criticism with a very simple response that is a test for success:
Michael Kinsley writes in his Washington Post opinion column: "The test is simple, and built into the concept of a surge: Has it allowed us to reduce troop levels to below where they were when it started? And the answer is no.End of discussion.
Not only are we not bringing people home, we are net 20,000 soldiers up from the pre-escalation levels. Meanwhile, Lord Petraeus's current strategy is the "pause" the withdrawal lest things spiral out o' control again. Frankly, I don't even think the extra troops are doing much of anything. We can thank Muqtada al Sadr for the decrease in American deaths. And we all know how dependable Sadr will be in the long run.
Meanwhile, here's Juan Cole's headline for his blog today (much like everyday):
60 Dead in Attack on Shiite Pilgrims;
Turkish invaders Kill 33 PKK Guerrillas;
2 US Soldiers Killed;
Stewart Skewers McCain
Solar
I've always thought that solar electricity generation is where the future should be. Given the size of our country, and the amount of surface area on buildings it should be a no-brainer. This energy expert agrees with me having done the math on such an undertaking:
My calculator indicates that 6.1 million acres is an area of 9,531 square miles, which is equivalent to a square of just under 100 miles by 100 miles (which would be 10,000 square miles). That's a large area, to be sure. But the possibility is there. A lot of "land" is available right now of rooftops.His above conclusion is based on replacing all current electric generation with solar, which does not include any current cleaner technologies like hydroelectric, thermal, or wind. He concludes with this:
What is the limiting factor? Are there particular components that are critical, but not available in large enough quantities to make this work? Possibly, but I don't know what those might be. I actually believe that this could be our Manhattan Project, and it could be done. But it doesn't even have to offset all of our current electrical capacity. We just need to start chipping away, and substituting solar in place of fossil fuels and new capacity that is needed.Couldn't agree more.
Can we afford it? The key question to me is, "Can we afford not to?"
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Just Consider This
And Iowa is not alone ......
Obama Would Carry Iowa, Clinton Would Lose
A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa shows Sen. Barack Obama would beat Sen. John McCain in the general election, 53% to 36%.
However, McCain would beat Sen. Hillary Clinton, 49% to 40%.
Iowa is expected to be a competitive swing state this fall.
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