Tangled Webs

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Unintended Consequences

Tell me grandpa, just exactly what would be the consequence of this?

AP) Republican Sen. John McCain on Tuesday called for a summer-long suspension of the federal gasoline tax and lower tax rates as the likely presidential nominee sought to stem the public's pain from a troubled economy.

Could it be that we would have increase gasoline consumption and even higher prices? Or how about a significant increase in the Federal deficit, particularly for infrastructure maintenance.

Another Question

By Paul Krugman, not me:

OK, actually I was born in Albany, and grew up on Long Island. But here’s my question: I understand why it’s political poison to show disrespect for small-town values — dignity is precious to all of us, and often trumps material interest. But why is it OK to disrespect big city values, even to suggest — as Bush has — that big-city dwellers aren’t part of the “real America”?

Helluvagoodquestion. Let's as Obama.

I think it's fair to say that neither Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton has put forth a policy on Iraq that offers a precipitous withdrawal. Ultimate withdrawal .... maybe. But I haven't heard either ever say that they would withdraw regardless of the situation in the middle east. Of course they want to keep their options open.

But John McCain is continually trying to paint both candidates as wanting to do just that, precipitously withdraw. So my question is this. Given the polls on how Americans see the war in Iraq, does McCain's distorted attack hurt or help the Democrats?

The Death of Us

Did you know that military suicides make up 20% of all reported suicides in the U.S.?

Torturer In Chief

Froomkin:

It's true that it has been widely assumed and occasionally reported that the CIA's use of brutal interrogation techniques could be traced back to the White House on a general level. But it was most definitely new last week when ABC News reported that a group of Bush's top aides, including Vice President Cheney, took part in meetings where they explicitly discussed and approved -- literally blow by blow -- tactics such as waterboarding. And while Bush has previously defended these tactics -- vaguely, and insisting against all evidence that they did not amount to torture -- he had not, until now, acknowledged that he personally OK'd them beforehand.

If you consider what the government did to be torture, which is a crime according to U.S. and international law, Bush's statement shifts his role from being an accessory after the fact to being part of a conspiracy to commit.

This is certainly no surprise. And I don't think it's really new news. And of course the American media didn't think that the open admission by the Preznit of the United States of having committed a crime was newsworthy. But it is a legal admission of wrongdoing. And if the U.S. won't prosecute, I think there are any number of other countries that would gladly prosecute.

Remember when Israel went around the world capturing Nazi war criminals? So what if some Iraqi's or other Arabs come to the U.S. to capture, oh say, Donald Rumsfeld? Can any top Bush administration officials ever safely travel abroad? Or is it a situation of stark hypocrisy where the mighty get a pass?

Go give the entire Froomkin post a read. Once again it highlights the fantastic job that's being done (almost single-handedly) by Martha Raddatz of ABC News.

Stagflation

How many times over the last year or two have I been writing about stagflation?

Well, it appears it's here. Economic growth has slowed to near recession levels (if not fully in recession and we just don't know it yet). And today's producer price index skyrocketed at a greater than 12% annual rate. Tomorrow is the release of the consumer price index which is unlikely to be pretty.

But don't worry. The government will strip out those luxuries, food and energy and claim that inflation is only slightly elevated.

Abuser or Abusee?

I find this very interesting:

The WP and LAT note that former president Jimmy Carter is "getting the cold shoulder" (WP) in Israel. None of Israel's top officials will meet with him, and Israel's security service will not protect him. Israeli officials are unhappy that Carter said he would meet with the leader of Hamas, and for his book in which he sharply criticized Israel. "A meeting like this gives some semblance of legitimacy to those who do not deserve it," one Israeli official said. "The book doesn't help him, either."

Does anyone really think that Jimmy Carter would sell out Israel? Is it such a crime to take an even-handed look at the ongoing conflicts between two peoples who can't seem to get beyond revenge? And what harm is there in talking? I have yet to hear an cogent argument on why there should not be negotiations between any two adversarial parties. Israel is behaving poorly and showing it's intransigence.

Infectious

That's what the credit crunch is.

As banks are pulling in their horns, hanging onto money, credit is drying up everywhere. Here's yet another example:

Retailers are being hit by a double whammy, as not only are consumers spending less but no one will extend credit to the companies, so many are finding themselves stuck. Although retailing might seem like an incredibly profitable business, the truth is that its seasonal nature means many retailers need to borrow money to make ends meet. Without available credit, many are being forced to close their doors. To make matters worse, when these stores close, they also directly affect other companies because many keep on owing money to their suppliers.

Apparently many mid-sized companies are looking at bankruptcy. And given that this is a large employer these days, that shouldn't be much help to the unemployment rate.

The housing mess simply needs government bailout. If prices continue to plummet, the ripple effect will continue as well.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Quote of The Day

There will be a lot more of this, some subtle, some not so subtle:

"I'm going to tell you something: That boy's finger does not need to be on the button."

-- Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY), quoted by NBC News, about Sen. Barack Obama. He later issued an apology to Obama, essentially saying he misspoke.

Pursuing Torturers

If you want to sign on in an attempt to get our government to actually hold our leaders who approved torture accountable, go here.

Retail Sales

Did you know that despite all the talk of recession, retail sales were actually up last month?!

Except for one little thing.

This measure is the amount of money spent, and all of the increase plus some is due to an increase in gasoline costs. So real retail sales are actually pretty awful. Ooops.

A Balancing Act

This is really an astounding chart on many levels. It shows the increase or decrease in oil production by country. Thus, from the center to left are countries (and amounts) of oil production increase. From the center of the chart to the right are countries with oil production decreases and the amount.

The post at The Oil Drum contains an analysis of this information as well as some 2008 charts that show changes occurring.

Here's what I find fascinating. First, the incredibly balance between the pluses and minuses. Secondly, and I think more importantly, take a look at the list of countries who grew. Other than a couple of exceptions, it's a virtual rogues gallery of character that the world is depending on for petroleum.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Metaphors

I was laying in bed last night, bored, thinking about the election (my exciting life!). I got to thinking about metaphors and John McCain came to mind. Isn't he a perfect metaphor for the Republican party?

Think about it. He's an oldish, grayhaired, hobbling white guy who's married to a vain-queen trophy wife who happens to be quite rich. He just looks like the Republican party. And I suspect as the election draws nearer, he'll look even more like the Republican party.

Another Implosion?

Krugman wonders, based on a "Flight to Safety" if we're in for another financial institution (i.e. Bear Stearns) implosion?

Who's Who?

Despite the claims by American officials (from the school of all Arabs look alike), Iran has now acknowledged they backed Maliki against al Sadr:

Likewise, the ISG [Iraq Study Group, (Baker-Hamilton commission)] pointed out that the Badr Corps paramilitary was trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and is close to Tehran. (See below). It fought on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's side in the recent Basra fighting. In other words, the government side was the pro-Iranian side. The Mahdi Army and Sadr neighborhood militia forces they attacked were largely Iraqi nativists who bad-mouth Iran. Fiderer points out that the ISG report had already diagnosed this syndrome. The Bush team did propaganda, pointedly declining to name Badr as an Iranian client and blaming Iran for the Mahdi Army's violence. In fact, the violence came as a response to violations of the cease fire by the US and the Iraqi government, which took advantage of it to arrest Mahdi Army commanders (that's a ceasefire?)

Iran admitted on Saturday that it had negotiated a ceasefire by the Mahdi Army when approached by Iraqi parliamentarians (who were from the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Da'wa Party, al-Maliki's backers). In other words, while Bushco blames Iran for Iraq's instability, in fact the Iranians have tried to and often succeeded in calming the situation down.

Juan Cole (link above) gives the full rundown. The short version is that the U.S. continues to support an Iraqi government that is essentially bound to Iran. And this same administration continues (either because they're stupid or mendacious or both) to publically push the idea that Iran is behind the "insurgents" and Mahdi army. Whether it's a part of a campaign to gin up a war with Iran, or simply idiocy I don't know. Both are highly possible. Ironically, Iran claims that the U.S. is responsible for the instability in Iraq. What do you think?

Exports

One of the big talking points by administration economic cheerleaders is that a falling dollar is really really good for the economy because it boosts exports. And that's true although we make a lot fewer things to export lately. But exports are only half of the equation. Unfortunately a lower dollars increases the price on imports:

Take a shopping trip to Costco and Walmart. Walk through the isles and see how many items are produced outside the U.S. Now remember that those items, on average, are up an average 14% over last year. Also remember that the government statistics don't report the "headline" inflation number correctly. No wonder consumers feel squeezed.

Poor Baby

Poor Freddo. It's hard to find employment when you're radioactive. Yet somehow, I have little doubt that some kind of wingnut welfare will kick in eventually.

Truth and Politics

One thing you must know if you're a politician. Sometimes you can't tell the truth:

Barack Obama attempted yesterday to dampen the row over his claim that economic problems had driven small-town voters to "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them." The NYT fronts a report noting that the Illinois senator admitted his phrasing had been clunky, but he stood by his central point about the economic plight of small-town America. That might not be enough to kill off the Clinton campaign's criticism; the Post points out that the brouhaha is likely to set the tone for Wednesday's debate between the two candidates in Pennsylvania.

And this is a brouhaha because ........

I guess virtually anything can become a big deal when you're Hillary and your scraping for any leverage at all. But Obama is right. Part of the strategy by conservatives is to keep the unwashed masses pregnant and barefoot. When a person is impoverished, their needs and desires fall down the ladder of Maslow's hierarchy, making it much easier to appeal to the lizard brain and thereby control voters.

Wake UP. It's Spring!

Meanwhile, there's that other little war:

In Afghanistan, troops are preparing for an uptick in violence as Taliban fighters return from their winter shelters in Pakistan. Nearly 2,300 U.S. Marines have been deployed at the country's main NATO base, in the hope of striking a conclusive blow against insurgents in Helmand province, an opium-production hotspot. Taliban commanders say they aren't worried about the Marines' arrival. "We have heard all about these Americans, and we are waiting - let them come," said one. "They will learn what others before them have learned."

It's Your Money

Ever wonder about those billions spent in Iraq? I suspect the Swiss banks are doing quite well lately, and the arms dealers:

The New York Times leads with word of a secret arms deal in which Iraqi officials sought to obtain $833 million worth of guns and aircraft from Serbia; officials say the deal underscores the corruption and inefficiency that have plagued the army's efforts to procure military equipment.

...

U.S. officials say the Iraqi army has still got a lot to learn about how to spend its money wisely. Back in 2005, the army squandered $1.3 billion on shoddy military equipment, much of which was never delivered; now officials have inked a secret deal with Serbia that appears designed to sidestep anti-corruption measures. "You can only explain it in two ways," said one Western official. "A desire to avoid oversight, and a desire to offer opportunities for graft and corruption." Officials said the deal raised questions about the Iraqi military's readiness to stand alone; it also came as a snub to the Pentagon's military sales program, which has struggled to deliver equipment fast enough to meet demand.

I guess I should be more charitable. Afterall there is this:

BAGHDAD - The Iraqi government has dismissed about 1,300 soldiers and policemen who deserted or refused to fight during last month's offensive against Shiite militias and criminal gangs in Basra, officials said Sunday.

Interior Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf said 921 police and soldiers were fired in Basra. They included 37 senior police officers ranging in rank from lieutenant colonel to brigadier general.

...

Since then, government officials have revealed that about 1,000 members of the security forces — including an entire infantry battalion — had mutinied, on some cases handing over vehicles and weapons to the militias.

When you have all those weapons defecting to the countryside, you just have to replenish. Don't you?

Tangled Webs

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Unintended Consequences

Another Question

A Question

The Death of Us

Torturer In Chief

Stagflation

Abuser or Abusee?

Infectious

Monday, April 14, 2008

Quote of The Day

Pursuing Torturers

Retail Sales

A Balancing Act

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Metaphors

Another Implosion?

Who's Who?

Exports

Poor Baby

Truth and Politics

Wake UP. It's Spring!

It's Your Money

About Me

Froomkin

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