Tangled Webs

Saturday, June 23, 2007

More Like This

Washington, D.C. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel issued the following statement regarding his amendment to cut funding for the Office of the Vice President from the bill that funds the executive branch. The legislation -- the Financial Services and General Government Appropriations bill -- will be considered on the floor of
the House of Representatives next week.

"The Vice President has a choice to make. If he believes his legal case, his office has no business being funded as part of the executive branch. However, if he demands executive branch funding he cannot ignore executive branch rules. At the very least, the Vice President should be consistent. This amendment will ensure that the Vice President's funding is consistent with his legal arguments. I have worked closely with my colleagues on this amendment and will continue
to pursue this measure in the coming days."

Go for it. And I don't just mean the theater, although that's useful. Cut his funding.

Iraq, In Pictures

Do you really want to know what's going on in Iraq? Go read this, complete with pictures. I've only read a part so far and it rips out my heart.

It didn't get a whole lot of play outside the finance media this week, but Bear Stearns has a hedge fund that holds a whole bunch of subprime mortgage bonds that are in meltdown mode because of the housing "problem". Barry Ritholtz quotes from Alan Abelson:

"Bear Stearns came within the width of an old school tie of having to liquidate its two jumbo hedge funds, whose combined portfolios were supposedly worth $20 billion and were loaded to the gills with assets shrinking with the speed of light, for no reason other than they served as collateral for subprime mortgages.

Any necessitous liquidation of the funds, besides inflicting real pain on the holders of such collateral, would have caused an explosion heard 'round the world.

Happily, the Bear funds' blue-chip creditors -- JPMorgan Chase, Merrill, Lehman, Goldman, Bank of America, Barclay's (we apologize if we've inadvertently omitted one or two) at the last moment chose not to pull the plug. They acted, we've no doubt, out of the goodness of their hearts. Bears Stearns' decision to help out its troubled progeny with a $3.2 billion infusion may have helped some, too.

Despite the gracious gesture of the creditors, we may not have witnessed the end of the story for those benighted hedge funds. The future of the more leveraged of the pair, which boasts the catchy title of the High Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage fund, still looks a bit problematic. We're grateful to the sharp-eyed toilers at East Shore Partners, which bills itself as research boutique and brokerage firm, for alerting us to the melancholy fact that everyone is not as lucky or agile or well-connected in dealing with subprime-mortgage woes as Bear Stearns."

Barry then offers this salient quote:

"If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem."
— JP Getty

Yep. In this case the good ole' boys were owed Billions, so they decided they'd better step in to prevent a meltdown that would have had an "impact" on their balance sheets. Bond yields (interest rates) have also been rising precipitiously and the stock market lost 185 points yesterday.

Prior to last week the subprime "problem" was largely ignored by Mr. Market as insignificant. It's now looking a bit less insignificant. How much is yet to blow we'll soon be finding out. Personally, I think it will help tilt the economy into recession by early next year.

Al Qaeda Militants

I'm sure you are noticing that all the news of the war effort in Iraq has been focused on pursuing "al Qaeda" militants. Aside from the obvious steno pad tendencies of the media to simply write what they are spoonfed by the Pentagon, why is this happening?

I have a theory. The U.S. is making Iraq a us vs. them situation with the "us" being the U.S., Iraq Sunnis, and Shias vs. "them" who are "foreign" fighters. It suits the politics of the situation to continue to oversue the term "al Qaeda" for both domestic consumption and to create the espirit de' corps that they hope for among the Iraqi's.

But what happens if they're wrong? Suppose they're not really fighting "al Qaeda" or even fundamentalists? Remember Chalabi who adeptly used the U.S. military to get rid of Saddam for him? Why is it not possible that the U.S. has become a pawn, being used by Sunni's to rid themselves of those radicals in their midst just like Shiites have used the U.S. military to fight against Sunnis?

I can see a couple of serious flaws in the current offensive. First we're arming, training and supporting Sunnis who ultimately will fight against the government. Second, whoever we are fighting is a popular insurgency that is indistinguishable from civilians. Any fighting will inevitably kill lots of innocents, fueling the insurgency as they continue the old George Washington tactic of a) stand and fight to inflict costs and casualties, b) withdraw in the face of overwhelming force, c) regroup in other areas with support from the population, d) repeat until the occupier tires.

Without a political solution that includes popular Sunni support for a national government, the war will continue.

Update: That didn't take long. About twenty minutes after writing the above, I ran across this:

BAGHDAD, June 22 — The operational commander of troops battling to drive fighters with Al Qaeda from Baquba said Friday that 80 percent of the top Qaeda leaders in the city fled before the American-led offensive began earlier this week. He compared their flight with the escape of Qaeda leaders from Falluja ahead of an American offensive that recaptured that city in 2004.

In an otherwise upbeat assessment, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the second-ranking American commander in Iraq, told reporters that leaders of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia had been alerted to the Baquba offensive by widespread public discussion of the American plan to clear the city before the attack began. He portrayed the Qaeda leaders’ escape as cowardice, saying that “when the fight comes, they leave,” abandoning “midlevel” Qaeda leaders and fighters to face the might of American troops — just, he said, as they did in Falluja.

Oh and Falluja was such a resounding success.

But.

Wait wait wait. I'm confused. I thought we had them surrounded? LMAO. What are the guerillas (I refuse to categorize them as al Qaeda because no one really knows who they are) supposed to do, fight like real men and die like at the Alamo? I'm sure they'll be very offended at having their masculinity challenged by the American general.

Can you believe this crap? Also note that tucked away in this article is an estimation that we outta have things under control by "next spring".

Update II: Digby:

The problem, of course, is that once you prove you are too muscle bound to move quickly and effectively, calling the other side "cowards" for failing to confront you actually is humiliating. And stupid. Your opponent just laughs while he runs circles around you.

...

Enough, already. These Republican grown-ups are all a bunch of emotionally damaged head cases. We are in desperate need of mature leadership.

Beautiful Eyes

I may be an old fogie, but I think this is just wrong:

Because apparently you're never too young to need a little cosmetic enhancement, Mattel has announced that it will start a makeup line targeting young girls. In the wake of the company's recently launched Barbie-themed online social networking Web site, which raised concerns that it put young girls at risk of sexual predation, the toy maker says it is partnering with cosmetics line Bonne Bell to create a "girl-savvy retail delivery." (How else is Barbie supposed to keep up with the Bratz?)

I've been wondering whatever happened to feminism? You know, love me for who I am not for how I look? It seems that young girls are being sexualized at a younger and younger age (can you say JonBenet Ramsey?). The article sites the a woman can absorb up to five pounds of chemicals each year from daily makeup use, but what about the impacts on these young girls and their self-images? I remember some of the rites of passage for my sister, wearing mascara, wearing nylons and such as that and that these things meant that she was achieving womanhood. Do we really want that to happen to five year olds?

Friday, June 22, 2007

Take A Walk!

If you can believe this:

Top US commanders in Iraq have been encouraging soldiers in Baghdad to "get out and walk."

This "new" strategy is to decrease the dangers from IED's. You see. If soldiers get out of their vehicles and walk, then they can't get blown up while in their vehicles.

Huh?

"Foot patrols, of course, are not a fail-safe method," Barnes adds. "On city streets, snipers remain a threat. And bombs can still kill dismounted troops. But when blasts occur in the middle of a foot patrol, the number of casualties are generally lower because the troops are more spread out."

I get it. By walking, the insurgents have to have better aim than just the gross blow-up-a-bunch-of-guys strategy.

Your Pentagon. Always thinkin'.

Ya Think?

CNN reported Thursday that the Secret Service expects President Bush to be "a high value terrorist target after he leaves office." They then showed the Secret Service practicing to deal with everything from James Bond-style stealth weapons to roadside IED's in order to meet that challenge.

The Big Magilla

Here we go again:

Tens of thousands of US and Iraqi soldiers are pushing on with simultaneous operations in Baghdad and to the north, south and west of the capital under Operation Phantom Thunder, a new plan aimed at rooting out Al-Qaeda fighters and other militants. The latest offensives, which began in the past week, follow the build-up of US military forces in Iraq to 156,000 soldiers and aim to deny militants sanctuary in the farmlands and towns surrounding Baghdad.

"If you've got it properly cordoned then they're going to flee into somebody's arms. It's a trap," US military spokesman Rear Admiral Mark Fox said.

"To the extent that you can eliminate them, we will." Hard fighting was expected in the next 45-60 days, he said.

Military commanders have said they anticipate greater casualties as their forces press on with a 4-month-old Baghdad security crackdown and other operations around the city.

Wow. I'll bet all those military commanders are now solidly in their comfort zones. They have territory to take, tactics to implement, commands to be given in a real life battlefield! And of course, they can use all those nifty codes words over communication, call in airstrikes and use new gadgets. Unfortunately they can also watch their soldiers die (I purposely didn't mentioned the dead civilians because the commanders could give a rip).

This would all be swell and good if it was going to solve a problem. It won't. This is an insurgency, not a front type war. They can never "surround" the enemy because the enemy is everywhere. They'll not be able to "hold" because there are not enough troops. They'll not be able to pacify because they are occupiers and the Iraqi forces are neither unified nor loyal. This big push is what they have pinned their hopes on.

But never fear. After this "offensive", they'll be another plan .... and another .... and another ......

War Within The War

Meanwhile, in northern Iraq:

SULAIMANIYAH, 21 June 2007 (IRIN) - Hundreds of Iraqi Kurds have been forced to flee their homes after up to 30,000 Turkish soldiers massed on the Iraqi-Turkish border and launched attacks against Kurdish fighters, Iraqi border police say.

Local aid agencies said Kurdish fighters had prevented them from entering the villages, which were being targeted. [How? Like via a battle?]

"The bombardments have forced hundreds to abandon their homes and leave for safer areas. Some houses were looted by Kurdish fighters, according to witnesses in the area," said Rastgo Muhammad Barsaz, spokesman for the non-governmental organisation Kurdistan Campaign to Help Victims of War.

"Dashati Takhe village, on the border near Zakho, is one of the most affected areas. We have been informed of civilian causalities but we don't know how many, as we are being denied access to the area. But by telephone, civilians have told us they are short of food and water," Barsaz said.

It was said before the war began that if we invaded and took out Saddam, that the whole place would turn into a mess. Isn't that what's happened?

You get the feeling that the Turks are simply waiting for the Iraqi government to fail at which time they can "legitimately" enter Kurdistan and take control in a defacto annexation of northern Iraq. It would be a twofer for them: get rid of a terrorist "nest" and a thorn in their rear-end and give them lots and lots and lots of petroleum. Not a bad use of military force from their perspective.

Brown Shirts

William Arkin:

The U.S. Northern Command, the military command responsible for "homeland defense," has asked the Pentagon if it can establish its own special operations command for domestic missions. The request, reported in the Washington Examiner, would establish a permanent sub-command for responses to incidents of domestic terrorism as well as other occasions where special operators may be necessary on American soil.

Oh my. On the face of it, they're logic of "being prepared" seems reasonable. In reality, such a move violates the spirit, intent, and constitutional traditions of keeping the military out of domestic law enforcement. The National Guard is specifically for these purposes, as opposed to being used for national defense overseas. You and I both know that if a "sub-command" is created by the Pentagon for domestic operations, they'll want and need something to do. Just exactly what do you think that "something" would be?

Oil Deal

Juan Cole reports on a draft "oil deal" in Iraq:

Reuters is reporting that the Kurds have reached an agreement with other parliamentarians on changes to a draft petroleum bill. These changes do not address, as Reuters incorrectly reports, "the equitable distribution of petroleum receipts." There is nothing in the draft law about such distributions, which according to the constitution would require separate legislation by parliament. The agreement is rather about the rights of regional confederacies such as the Kurdistan Regional Government to sign contracts with foreign companies independently of Baghdad. The [Shiite] Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), which dominates provincial administrations in the south, is pushing for the formation of a Shiite regional government on the analogy of Kurdistan, which would also have claims on petroleum finds in its area.

The details of the agreement were not released.

I'm far from an expert on this issue. But two things stick out at me. First, the devil in such issues is usually in the details which are "yet to be released". What has been agreed to looks to be a very very preliminary framework to try and work to ultimate agreement. Remember, all these Iraqi politicians go on vacation for the summer in about a week (hey, what's the rush?).

Second, and likely most important, the referenced article doesn't mention the Sunni's anywhere. This goes along with the revenue distribution issue. While the Sunni's are a minority, they are still a sizeable portion of the country's population and include some of the better academics, professionals, and military personnel. Plus the Sunni's are well supported by other Sunni nations (can you say Saudia Arabia?) that are a majority in the region. Without a political solution that includes the Sunnis (a solution that goes well beyond the issue of oil), the war will continue.

Fascism Watch

Monday, June 4, was supposed to be Maxwell Corydon Wheat’s big day. The 80-year-old poet, who lives in Nassau County, New York, was to be announced as the county’s first poet laureate.
But the announcement never came. Instead, he saw his name sullied, and then his nomination shot down.

All because he’s written some poems critical of Bush and the Iraq War.
source

This is number 11 on the Fourteen Characteristics of Fascism:

11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts - Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts and letters is openly attacked.

Oil, Autos and Congress

WASHINGTON - The Senate voted Thursday to require average fuel economy of 35 miles per gallon for new cars, pickup trucks and SUVs by 2020, raising efficiency standards that have not changed significantly for nearly two decades.
-------------
Republicans earlier blocked Democratic efforts to raise oil taxes by $29 billion and use the money to promote renewable fuels and other clean energy programs.
source

Wow, 35 mpg. Isn't that amazing? Will it hurt the auto industry and cost us jobs? Will the auto industry have to retool to meet this stringent demand?

The most fuel-efficient cars in Europe all have fuel efficiency over 64 miles to the gallon, which translates to 27 kilometers per liter.
-------------
...American automakers actually make more fuel-efficient versions of their top sellers for the European markets.
source

Apparently it won't be a huge burden on the auto industry since they are already beating that goal almost twice over. Americans are being scammed big time. As Marc Maron says, Wake up, sheeple.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

No Guts

Pardon me, but this is just plain chickenshit:

WASHINGTON -- The Iraq Study Group may be coming back.

The House adopted legislation Thursday to revive the bipartisan panel of prominent former U.S. officials who last year said President Bush should change course on the war.

A new assessment by the panel would offer lawmakers an independent alternative to an administration progress report due in September. And because the panel is unlikely to suggest U.S. combat troops remain in Iraq in large numbers, its recommendations could provide political cover for Republicans who want Bush to start bringing troops home.

First off, who in their right mind would return in the role of the Iraq Study group? Next, why in the world would Democrats support helping Republicans to find political cover to their war? Finally, what makes anyone think that any study group findings would be any more influencial than the last one?

Sometime's George Gets It Right

George Will that is:

When, against the urgings of the Israelis, we pressed for the elections that overthrew Fatah, who we were backing and put in Hamas, Condoleezza Rice said nobody saw it coming. Those four words are the epitaph of this administration.

Pony's!

26 percent.

President Bush’s approval rating in a new Newsweek poll, a new low. “[A] record 65 percent disapprove, including nearly a third of Republicans.”

Not Part Of The Executive

This is getting ridiculous.

A little background. Henry Waxman has been investigating the refusal of Cheney to comply with turning over records to the National Archives regarding his office and their handling of classified information (can you say Scooter Libby?).

Now this:

Vice President Dick Cheney has asserted his office is not a part of the executive branch of the U.S. government, and therefore not bound by a presidential order governing the protection of classified information by government agencies, according to a new letter from Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., to Cheney.

Cheney is asserting that his office does not have to comply with a executive order requiring compliance with these regulations on classified information.

Not. Part. Of. The. Executive. Branch.

I'm typeless

Update: On another front, more subpoenas. A big part of this story is that three Republicans voted with Dems (Hagel, Specter and Hatch).

Update II: Rahm Emmanuel makes a good point. If you're not a part of the Executive Branch then get the hell out!

"Today, we discovered that everything we learned in U.S. government class was wrong. Evidently, the Vice President does not consider himself a part of the executive branch, and therefore believes he can obstruct meaningful oversight and avoid being held accountable. If the Vice President truly believes he is not a part of the executive branch, he should return the salary the American taxpayers have been paying him since January 2001, and move out of the home for which they are footing the bill."

Goodwin's Law

I'm afraid that former Gen. Abizaid stepped into the trap of Goodwin's Law.

William Arkin reports on a speech given by Abizaid. Part of that analysis reports:

On the unconventional side, Abizaid called for the United States to "disrupt" and "contest" the virtual space enemies use to further their anti-West cause. He spoke of the need to defeat the enemy before its extremist views are accepted by the majority of Middle Easterners and the world is thrust into another world war. According to the USNI blogger reporting on the speech, Abizaid compared the current situation in the Middle East to Germany in the 1930s, when Hitler took power even though the majority of Germans didn't support his politics or his fascist ideologies.

*Sigh*. The best and the brightest. You'd think Vietnam never happened. The same arguments were used then. But I have a question? How much is communism a threat in the thirty years since we left Vietnam?

As usual, Abizaid is right and he's wrong (whick Arkin correctly points out). Yes, Islamic extremist gaining a foothold is not a good thing. But no, using the military to stop it is not only wrong and immoral, it won't freakin' work!

Our middle eastern allies .... and dictators .... are properly concerned that rebellious and extremist forces are a threat to their regimes. But what we haven't realized is that there is a big difference between "rebellious" forces and "extremist" forces. A U.S. military presence creates more extremists while the dictators themselves create more rebels. When dissatisfied citizens are left with no other choices to express dissatisfaction, they'll go with those that offer rebellion via extremism rather than nothing. Our absence opens up the possiblity for more moderate forces to implement change.

The Arab street is going to properly demand change in the status quo. That is a given. What vehicle is chosen to implement that change will be in their hands as well. A imperialistic (or the perception of an imperialistic) force will influence their choices to the most vocal, violent and tribal of their instincts. If we get out of the way, there's an opportunity for the middle eastern countries to join the 21st century with a minimum of bloodshed.

I wish we didn't have to have this ground-hog-day moment. But it seems we are destined to learn it again.

What A Card

Our wonderful, diplomatic Preznit has yet again embarrassed himself:

The Wonkette blog reports: "Congress joined the Bush Administration for a nice little barbecue on the South Lawn [Tuesday] night. The theme was Mardi Gras, so everybody could enjoy memories of New Orleans being destroyed by the Bush Administration and then pretty much left in that same condition years later.

"Famous NOLA chef Paul Prudhomme catered the picnic and New Orleans jazz band Kermit Ruffins and the Barbeque Swingers played Dixieland.

"And then Bush told the black musicians to clean up after the politicians."

From the transcript:

"THE PRESIDENT: Kermit Ruffins and the Barbeque Swingers, right out of New Orleans, Louisiana. (Applause.)

"MR. RUFFINS: Thank you. Thanks for having us. We're glad to be here.

"THE PRESIDENT: Proud you're here. Thanks for coming. You all enjoy yourself. Make sure you pick up all the trash after it's over. (Laughter.)"

Hahahahaaha. How funny. Isn't it swell when you perform in front of the President of the Uuunited States and he makes a frat boy joke at your expense that could (and likely was) a racial insult? What a class act.

Repricing Risk

Looks like risk is finally beginning to return to the markets:

June 21 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co.'s threat to sell $800 million of mortgage securities seized from Bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds is sending shudders across Wall Street.

A sale would give banks, brokerages and investors the one thing they want to avoid: a real price on the bonds in the fund that could serve as a benchmark. The securities are known as collateralized debt obligations, which exceed $1 trillion and comprise the fastest-growing part of the bond market.

Remember those go-go days of lending to anyone with a pulse? And remember all those folks who felt they could buy these mortgaged backed bonds with impunity and still get a very high return? This would be a big whooops.

Is this the beginning of a mortgage meltdown? Or is the a small blip in a market awash in cash? Depends on which economist you talk to. Let's hope the more optimistic hand is right.

Tangled Webs

Saturday, June 23, 2007

More Like This

Iraq, In Pictures

The Whimpering Bear

Al Qaeda Militants

Beautiful Eyes

Friday, June 22, 2007

Take A Walk!

Ya Think?

The Big Magilla

War Within The War

Brown Shirts

Oil Deal

Fascism Watch

Oil, Autos and Congress

Thursday, June 21, 2007

No Guts

Sometime's George Gets It Right

Pony's!

Not Part Of The Executive

Goodwin's Law

What A Card

Repricing Risk

About Me

Froomkin

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