Tangled Webs

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Inflation Watch

We all know that energy and food are going up. Food is now increasing at an 8% inflation rate. Funny, everyone cheered when WalMart's sales went up 2.4%. But if you put that inflation number into the mix, they seem to actually have sold less.

But I digress. I ran across this bit of information that hasn't been spoken of much as an inflation generator .....

From John Mauldin's e-newsletter (you must do a free subscription to see the link)

But another currency is slowly wending its way up. Take a look at the chart below. The Chinese yuan is up against the dollar from 8.28 to 7.57 to the dollar over the last two years. That is an increase of almost 9%. The movement in the last month has been particularly fast. I wrote over two years ago that the Chinese would slowly allow their currency to appreciate, and would move at their own pace, despite the screams from the US Senate to do it all at once.

In 2-3 years, the yuan will be down another 10-15% from where it is today, and the Chinese will be close to allowing the yuan to float. Should this be a cause for rejoicing in the US? Maybe for a few select companies, but consumers will not be as happy that (as noted above) prices are slated to rise.

Consider all the products that we import from China. By China allowing the currency to eventually float against the dollar, Chinese goods will continue to get more expensive (9% over the last two years with another 10-15% yet to come). Sure, it will make our exports more attractive to China, but just think of the costs of everything you see at a Costco or WalMart increase a minimum of 5%/year simply based on currency changes.

A Huge Amen Moment

Standing Up

One of the big goals that Bush has been pushing, for years, is the training of Iraqi troops. Well, he's in for some bad news:

Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Iraqi army battalions that operate independently, with no assistance from U.S. forces, has dropped from 10 to six over the last two months, the top U.S. general said on Friday.

But Marine Corps Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, downplayed the figure's importance, saying the decline was driven by casualties, worn-out equipment and the need to pull units from battle so they can be resupplied.

"The fact that a number may be changing in a very narrow band shouldn't be overly a concern," Pace told reporters.

What's astounding is the numbers. A battlion is like around 500 soldiers. Not only are they losing ground (despite Pace's spin), but the overall numbers are miniscule. After years of building the army. Years. And even among those that do operate independently, who knows how many are loyal and just how much infiltration has occurred by various factions.

Associated With Americans

Here's an excerpt from an obviously anonymous Iraqi blogger. This gentleman works for McClatchey in Iraq. His post gives you some idea of the dangers of even being associated with Americans. He was stopped going through one of the many checkpoints he has to go through:

He took my papers and walked to the parked pickup vehicles a few meters away. It looked as if he were discussing the matter with his colleagues.

I looked up at the sky, the abode of the mighty Creator and prayed and prayed, and prayed.

If any digging was to take place into my identity and my profession, then I was dead anyway. NOT a doctor, no, a correspondent for an AMERICAN news agency!!

I was left there waiting to hear my sentence for more than twenty of the longest minutes of my life, when another vehicle arrived and stopped. Do not doubt it, these people held many a life in their slippery fingertips.

Someone dismounted. My tormentor went straight to him with my papers and they seemed to be debating the small matter of my fate. Their voices raised a little, but still I could understand nothing. They seemed not to agree, the younger man, who thought me a doctor was getting very angry and red in the face.

The newcomer, holding my papers in his hand, turned and walked towards me, reached me, handed me my papers and said one word, "Go."

This was one, just one, of about sixteen checkpoints this guy went through. He left .... quickly .... and will never go that route again. He also has no doubt that the checkpoint person who seemed to be eager to kill him will never forget his face.

Friday, July 13, 2007

Keep Hammering

The Anonymous Liberal explains why it's so important (via Glenn Greenwald) for all of us to keep hammering away at the government and press atrocities, despite the tiresomeness of it all.

Vacation!

I've mentioned here any number of times the ridiculousness of the Iraqi Parliament taking off August for vacation. Today, Tony Snow tells us why it's ok for them to .....

Ohhhhh. Ok. Now I understand. First, it's hot and we don't want those oooofficaials to get overheated. And besides, given how similar Iraq and the U.S. are, it's ok because the U.S. Congress takes August off.

Now I understand. I hope the families of the soldiers who die over the next several months will understand as well. I wonder how hot it is in hell?

Read The Fine Print

The Republicans are going to try and get a whole lot of mileage out of this. Just be sure to read the fine print ....

Such as this:

Sens. Richard Lugar (R-IN) and John Warner (R-VA) “said today that President Bush should seek a new war authorization and present a plan to Congress by Oct. 16 outlining contingency plans in Iraq. Those plans, which would include reducing American forces, should begin by the end of the year.” Their measure will be “considered next week when the Iraq war debate resumes.”

So the big move by these Republicans is to a) reduce troop numbers ... translation ... return to the pre-surge tactics and b) not ask it to be done until October. By that time the almighty Petraeus will come forward and bless the escalation. And the music will continue to play.

I know I'm supposed to be grateful that these nutbars are "coming around". But it's certainly too little and way too late. The too little part is the most important thing for now. Republicans will continue to try and peel away slices of Democrats from a withdrawal plan. They are merely carrying out Bush's play-out-the-clock strategy.

Added: Funny, I went from posting this to this from Atrios:

There will come a point where all of the very serious members of Congress (the wanker caucus) will come together on some bill or another which will pretend to force Bush to do something about Iraq but which won't actually force him to do anything. David Broder will applaud, the media will praise the president for not vetoing it, and only us dirty fucking hippie bloggers will point out that it doesn't change a damn thing.

Mr. President .....

There's always Utah .....

Click to enlarge:

Quick To Criticize, Now It's Time To Praise

Looks like Michael Gordon and the NY Times got an article right, doing actual ... like ... journalism! Glenn Greenwald has the story here.

I'll just add that Michael Gordon has recently been in Iraq. Maybe he got a dose of reality there. In his on camera reports, he looked quite spooked. There's nothing like being shot-at to clarify the issue.

Republican Watch

I picked up this bit of wisdom from David Brooks via TalkLeft .....

**cough,cough** bullshit **cough,cough**

David Brooks, as always an apologist for the GOP, writes:

To simplify a bit, roughly 20 senators, led by John McCain and Joe Lieberman, believe in Gen. David Petraeus and the surge. There are roughly 30 Republicans, led by Dick Lugar, John Warner and Lamar Alexander, who believe that the U.S. should scale back its mission and adopt the Iraq Study Group’s recommendations. There are roughly 30 Democrats, led by Carl Levin and Jack Reed, who also want to scale back and adopt the study group’s approach. And finally, there are roughly 20 Democrats, led by Ted Kennedy and Russ Feingold, who just want to get out as quickly as possible.

No votee, no believee

TalkLeft tells us the real plan and why the Democrats need to push vote after vote regarding withdrawal:

The plan is to kick the can to Petraeus, who will plead for a few more Friedman Units, which the GOP will demand he be given, until Bush is no longer President. In then in 2009, the game of 'who lost Iraq?' will be used to intimidate the next President into 'fighting them there . .

Or to blame the sitting Democratic President for having "lost Iraq".

Iraqi Soldiers Killing More Americans

I was going to just add this to the post below, but I think it deserves it's own little soapbox. Remember the attacks by "Iranians" on soldiers in Karbala a few weeks back? As usual, it turns out to have been something quite different, much more along these lines:

According to a U.S. Army investigation, the Iraqi Police assisted a brazen January assault on U.S. troops in the southern city of Karbala -- an attack that a U.S. military spokesman tied to Iranian operatives earlier this month.
USA Today obtained a copy of the Army's February 27 report. The report found that the Karbala policemen exploited "a level of trust" that U.S. commanders placed with them to provide security for a provincial headquarters where a contingent of soldiers were stationed. In the assault, one of the most sophisticated on U.S. troops to date, gunmen passed themselves off as part of a U.S. security team and entered the compound past police checkpoints, eventually killing five soldiers.
USA Today reports that in advance of the attack, Iraqi police abandoned their stations, as did Iraqi civilian employees of the compound's PX. The gunmen exhibited signs of knowing how U.S. forces would defend themselves under attack, and used that apparent knowledge to pin down and abduct soldiers and officers.

How're'ya liken' those Alamo's these days?

This is wrong on so many levels. The fact the media took the stenograph of the administrations version of events (Iran did it!), the fact we keep arming and training the insurgency, and the fact we keep putting Americans in harms way. It's immoral and criminal. But as long as Republicans continue to not have a backbone in dealing with their President, we're screwed.

Filibuster Non-Coverage

Josh Marshall catches a great headline today out of the ever-reliable NY Times that gives a demonstration of just how the media is ignoring the term "filibuster"

Senate Narrowly Backs Bush in Rejecting Debate on Increasing Time Between Deployments, July 12, 2007

Democrats Block a Vote on Bolton for the Second Time, June 21, 2005

You see, when the Republicans doing they're doing something positive, "backing" the Preznit. When Dems do it, they're "blocking".

Subtle. And very powerful.

Tied Hands

I'm curious about something. I can understand, in a sick sorta way, why Bush would throw down the gauntlet on legislation threatening his adventure in Iraq. But why would he specifically also include Iran in such a discussion? Not "foreign policy" or commander-in-chief prerogatives, but specifically regarding Iran?

Gee, I wonder .......

Spencer Akerman, via Digby

It's official: President Bush will veto any and all measures put forth by Congressional Dems to halt the Iraq War, according to a little-noticed letter from the White House to Carl Levin (D-MI), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The letter also says that the White House will veto any measure that would tie its hands on Iran -- including on military action inside that country.

That Bush will veto any such measures was expected, and isn't surprising. Nonetheless, the letter makes it official that Congressional Dems face the daunting prospect of having to muster a veto-proof majority on any Iraq or Iran measures. ............

The Iran section of the letter is particularly interesting. It says the White House will veto any Congressional effort to either "direct or prohibit" any military, intelligence or diplomatic action regarding Iran. While the emphasis is clearly on possible restrictions to the president's ability to go after the Iranians, the most prominent amendment on Iran is Sen. Joe Lieberman's (ID-CT) successful effort to get the Senate to "confront" Iran for alleged attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. It'll be interesting to see if that effort, which passed the Senate yesterday on a 97-0 vote, spurs Bush's veto pen.

Added: KargoX reminds us that Bush has promised to not just "veto" legislative interference in his wars, but to "defy" legislation limiting his wars. Now tell me, would that really surprise anyone? Suppose Congress, with Republican cooperation, overrides a Presidential veto and the President just ignores the whole thing, acting as commander-in-chief under some Abu Gonzales originated Mickey Mouse Law School bullshit. Then what?

Disordered Discharge

I really felt a need to comment on this story. Last night, ABC News carried an investigative piece on how the military is denying benefits to soldiers upon discharge because of pre-existing "Personality Disorders".

ABC News:

“Since 2001, more than 22,000 servicemen and women from all branches of the military have been separated under the personality disorder discharge.” ABC News explains, “This diagnosis means the personality disorder existed before military service, and therefore medical care and disability payments are not the military’s responsibility.”

This is so blatantly ridiculous on the surface that it nearly bears no further discussion.

But please, allow me.

As a former practicing psychotherapist I can tell you something about Personality Disorders. These are so-called "Axis II" disorders, meaning they are descriptors of an individual's long-term functioning, and not readily amendable to treatment. In other words, it's largely just who you are, in the past, now and in the future. But it's also important to note that no-one is without, at a minimum, symptoms of a personality disorder. The criteria for each disorder are quite subjective, easily misinterpreted, highly disputed and often misused. Medical insurance plans will not reimburse for treatment of a personality disorder due to the problems in it's diagnosis and treatment. The diagnosis is often used more as a short-hand descriptor of an individuals approach to the world, rather than any recognized "illness" in our third party payor treatment world. Mind you, there are practictioners who specialize in treating certain personality disorders, but it's treatment reserved for the rich who can afford indefinite treatment (Paris Hilton anyone?).

This should make it readily apparent that the military can, at it's discretion, declare virtually any soldier as suffering from a personality disorder. Want to cut costs? Send a memo to the military psychiatrists laying out loose protocols for diagnosis of these disorders and voila', costs get cut.

I also want to note this. By definition, people will "high-grade" themselves based on profession. So in stereotypical terms, just who in the world do you think would join the military with the desire to see the world and kill people? Yes, I realize that's a broad brush statement, but statistically it happens to be true. Therefore, a very young person (borderline personality disorder) joins the military to fight (anti-social personality disorder) because of fear the terrorists will attack us (paranoid personality disorder), because he thinks it's his country "right or wrong" (obsessive compulsive personality disorder) and because he/she may not have any other job options (dependent personality disorder) and because he/she is comfortable knowing how to deal with oppressive controlling bosses (passive/aggressive personality disorder). I could go on in this same vein throughout the entire spectrum of disorders.

It's simply ridiculous for our military to treat soldiers, who have fulfilled their end of the bargain, benefits based on such nonsense and junk science. It's yet another sign of our times and the rotting out of the inside of our government by Republicans.

Read More Awake Now

They changed the code and didn't tell me ......

Workie now again.

The Rich Get .....

Yep ....

This story is a classic example of why Tiffany's is doing quite well thank-you-very-much while WalMart sales are (ex-inflation) flat:

The NYT fronts word that, through the power of loopholes, partners at the Blackstone Group will avoid paying taxes on $3.7 billion of the $4.75 billion the company made during its initial public offering last month. Although the partners will pay $533 million in taxes, they will get it back in the long run and, in fact, receive $200 million more from the government. "These guys have figured out how to turn paying taxes into an annuity," a tax lawyer tells the paper, and adds that this is a perfect example of why the current debate in Washington over "what tax rate to pay misses the big picture."

Contrary Headlines

Our "Read More" switch seems to be having a bad morning. Until it wakes up ....

Remember yesterday's stock market party based (or so the headlines said) on WalMart having such wonderful sales? Well, here's today's headline story:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales posted their biggest monthly decline in nearly two years during June, according to government data issued on Friday, indicating the housing market slump and soaring gasoline prices are depressing consumer spending.

Sales for June dropped 0.9 percent where economists had looked for a 0.1 percent gain, far outweighing small upward revisions to the figures for May, according to Commerce Department data.

The market seems to be taking it well so far. Can you say slowing economy anyone?

Accurate Fire

Now we are openly having to fight the Iraq police ..... too?

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces battled Iraqi police and gunmen Friday, killing six policemen, after an American raid captured a police lieutenant accused of leading an Iranian-backed militia cell, the military said.

Seven gunmen also died in the fight, a rare open street battle between American troops and policemen. Washington has demanded the government purge its police force of militants, and U.S. and Iraqi authorities have arrested officers in the past for militia links. But the Bush administration said in an assessment Thursday that progress on that front was "unsatisfactory."

The lieutenant was captured before dawn in eastern Baghdad, but the soldiers came under "heavy and accurate fire" from a nearby Iraqi police checkpoint, as well as intense fire from rooftops and a church, the military said in a statement.

Of course the fire was "heavy and accurate". They were armed with the best America has to offer, and given excellent training.

Frankly I suspect this kind of thing goes on all the time.

amazon

Haven't posted in a while. Been slammed at work. Meanwhile, boycott Amazon. Here's why.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Quote Of The Day

Joe Biden on Iraq progress report:

"This progress report is like the guy who’s falling from a 100-story building and says half-way down that ‘everything’s fine.’"

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)