Here's a good comparison of inflation stats, then and now:
Funny how the government can just sort of massage the numbers in whatever way suits them. And why would they do this? Well, it's spelled e n t i t l e m e n t s, which are increased annually based on official government statistics.
Actually, it is.
Anyway, here is an article explaining exactly why Afghanistan is an even worse prospect than Iraq. The article, written by an economic conservative of all people, hits the nail right on the head. The concluding graf:
As the situation in Iraq settles down - and it appears to be doing so - more focus will be drawn to Afghanistan, the war that even opponents of Iraq have acknowledged as appropriate and important. But it is important to understand what this war consists of: It is a holding action against an enemy that cannot be defeated (absent greater force than is available) with open lines of supply into a country allied with the United States. It is a holding action waiting for certain knowledge of the status of al Qaeda, knowledge that likely will not come. Afghanistan is a war without exit and a war without victory. The politics are impenetrable, and it is even difficult to figure out whether allies like Pakistan are intending to help or are capable of helping.While I don't agree with the "Iraq is winding down thing", the rest is spot on.
Thus, while it may be a better war than Iraq in some sense, it is not a war that can be won or even ended. It just goes on.
I won't rant any further about the corporate welfare side of the story, but Bear Stearns was bailed out by the Fed today.
What's kind cute is that Atrios reassures us all (after all, he is an economist) that the Fed has done this kind of thing before ..... in the 1930's!
Wasn't this guy a swiftboater?
The National Republican Congressional Committee "overstated by $740,000 its cash on hand as of Jan. 31 because of fraud allegedly committed by a former employee," according to Roll Call.Update: Indeed, he was a swiftboater!
"An ongoing investigation into accounting irregularities at the NRCC has determined that ex-committee Treasurer Christopher J. Ward allegedly funnelled 'several hundred thousand dollars' from the NRCC into his own bank accounts since at least 2004. The probe has also found that Ward submitted to the NRCC’s bank and to House GOP leadership 'bogus' audit reports for years 2002-2005, with an additional 'bogus' audit report provided to the NRCC’s bank for 2006."
Trying to follow the telecom immunity thing is serious business. The latest:
WASHINGTON — After its first secret session in a quarter-century, the House on Friday rejected retroactive immunity for the phone companies that took part in the National Security Agency’s warrantless eavesdropping program after the Sept. 11 attacks, and it voted to place greater restrictions on the government’s wiretapping powers.It would be nice to now declare victory. But you know it's still not over. The best outcome may be a stalemate until the election. In the meantime, the very fact that the Senate version wasn't ushered quickly over to Bush's crayon is a victory. Many thanks to the House of Reps leadership for responding to it's constituents.
The decision, by a largely party-line vote of 221 to 188, is one of the few times when Democrats have been willing to buck up against the White House on a national security issue. It also ensures that the months-long battle over the government’s wiretapping powers will drag on for at least a few more weeks and possibly much longer.
Doesn't this picture just summarize a thousand words?
The last time we tried the guns AND butter thing, it worked out just about the same way as it is now.
Tim has a great post at TMTGM comparing the economic conditions of the 70's stagflation with today. His reasoning is excellent, his data abundant and well worth a read. Tim does a particularly good job of going down into the weeds on how the government has changed, often dramatically, how inflation calculations have been changed over the last 40 years.
The short version ends with this rhetorical question:
Which has changed more over the last 28 years, inflation or how it's calculated?
I kept wondering about this, now I know.
The big news in the stock market today is the collapse of the Carlyle Groups Hedge fund. I was wondering if this is the same Carlyle as the Baker/Bush Carlyle Group. Well, it is.
Carlyle Capital, the bond fund affiliated with private equity firm The Carlyle Group, is on the verge of collapse after failing to agree a new financing deal with lenders.Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
The fund said late Wednesday that it expects lenders will soon take possession of “substantially all” its remaining assets after it was unable to meet surging margin calls on its portfolio of residential-mortgage-backed securities.
Not really lethal to me, but to those involved.
I'm watching the nightly news and trying to figure out just how many dead American soldiers it takes to get major coverage. So far we've had 15 this week and the coverage is still on Spitzer's Dupre chick.
If only it were possible.
In today's addition, it's parents who swear that vaccines cause autism. A recent decision by the federal government to payoff a family claiming vaccines caused their child's autism has been the center of recent controversy. A doctor has written a good piece in Salon about the case, the nonsense and the consequences:
Despite the charges, multiple studies have demonstrated no connection between thimerosal [mercury] (or anything else about vaccines) and autism. In the past nine months alone, at least three studies have shown that thimerosal has no relationship to autism or any other neurological disorders. One study, published in the January issue of Archives of General Psychiatry, looked at autism rates in California after the removal of thimerosal. Not only did the rates not go down, they continued to rise. For these reasons, the government and most doctors stand by the belief that vaccines are effective and safe.So why did the government pay these people off? Good question. As is often pointed out, the amount of mercury being spewed into the air by coal fired generating plants makes vaccine dosages look miniscule by comparison, but parents aren't freaking out about that. Just another hysteria being generated by ignorance and perpetuated by a stupid media.
Raw Story:
A city police chief who led an investigation into charges that Britain cooperated with secret CIA flights to transport terrorism suspects without formal proceedings has been found dead, his deputy said Tuesday.He "fell" off a cliff.
Manchester Chief Constable Michael Todd, 50, was found dead in Snowdonia, about 240 miles northwest of London, Deputy Chief Constable Dave Whatton said. He had been missing since going out for a walk Monday during his day off.
Is the Fallon resignation a sign of impending attack on Iran? Terry Atlas thinks so:
Terry Atlas blogs for U.S. News and World Report with "6 Signs the U.S. May Be Headed for War in Iran." They are: Fallon's resignation, Cheney's trip to the Middle East, the Israeli airstrike on Syria, U.S. warships off Lebanon, Israeli comments and Israel's war with Hezbollah.Atlas explains each sign in detail and it's very interesting to read.
It's still not really beyond Bush and Cheney to order a full-scale preemptive attack on Iran. But the more likely scenario is that there will be an asymmetrical U.S. response to a (possibly trumped up) Iranian provocation. And the most likely scenario is that the U.S. will encourage (or certainly not oppose) an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities -- which in turn would lead the U.S. to come to Israel's defense should Iran strike back.
If you follow the news, you know that the Fed stepped in with some dough yesterday to help the market. In simple terms, the Fed agreed to take virtually any junk as collateral and give, in return, some very nice U.S. Treasuries.
Many have been asking an important question. These "swaps" are for 28 days. What happens then?
What happens after 28 day is pretty clear. The swap will be rolled over and over and over until the mortgage backed security market stabilizes. This could be a year from now, or perhaps 10. That may sound ridiculous but it's essentially what happened in Japan. It's also part of the Zombification process I described in The Great Pretender.The truth is that no one will know. At a minimum, the Fed can continue to carry the junk as long as necessary to insure that the
Inquiring minds might be asking what happens if the value of the MBS drops. Will the Fed issue a margin call or just look the other way? One might think we just have to wait and see, but since the Fed will probably never say, it's more likely we have to wait and not see.
Bonddad has a good post up summarizing in simple terms the problems were having in the economy right now. The short version is that the "Bush boom" has been financed totally on debt.
I found this chart particularly interesting. It's a chart of the inflation adjusted real income over time:
Note that the inflation adjustment in the chart above is based on the, in my humble opinion, bogus government inflation numbers. If I'm correct, then incomes are even worse than the chart indicates. Sure, the rich have done quite well. But there are a lot of more the "not rich" out there who are steadily losing ground.
I remember thinking to myself a few years ago, "self?, how in the hell can all these people continue to by expensive home electronics and auto-tanks, aka SUV's?" I always suspected the answer and the above chart proves it. Folks have been spending all of their income AND any equity they have in their homes or anything else. There are a whole lot of Escalade drivers going around now feeling a whole lot poorer .... if they can keep their escaldes that is.
Well, the commander in the middle east is out. Admiral Fallon was retired today. Some say it's because of this article which is critical of Bush. Some say it's a protest over impending attacks on Iran. No one knows for sure.
So tell, just why would there be billions of Iraqi dollars in U.S. banks?
Just because the current Iraqi leadership has no popular mandate and is sitting on a powder keg that will eventually blow up all over them, is that any reason to keep a coupla billion American payola bucks around as a safety net?
Are the House of Representatives changing course on telecom immunity again?
Keep those cards and letter comin' folks!
Perhaps a preview of coming attractions? It appears that John McCain may be functioning with less than a full deck up there.
An attorney writing in Harpers makes the case that Eliot Spitzer was setup as a part of the administration's pushback due to it's own scandals. And he makes a pretty good case. But I'm not sure it matters.
Spitzer is apparently guilty of what he's been charged with. If he were a regular schmo, he likely wouldn't have been under investigation. But he's not a regular schmo. Which leads to the larger question. Should sex scandals prevent someone from holding public office? I say no and have said so since Clinton. But unfortunately, this is puritan America we live in where hypocrisy reins and the sword swings. So Spitzer will yet another casualty of our national obsession with sex.
