Tangled Webs

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Interesting Poll

This poll is somewhat interesting:

A new Rasmussen Reports poll in Iowa finds the Democratic presidential race in a three way statistical tie.

Sen. Hillary Clinton leads with 27%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 25%, and John Edwards at 24%. Bill Richardson is the only other Democrat in double-digits at 10%.

Key finding: "In terms of second-choices in Iowa, John Edwards tops the list of candidates. He is the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 18%, Clinton for 16%, and Richardson for 15%. Second choice preferences are especially important given the nature of the Iowa caucuses. In a particular caucus setting, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates."

The dead heat thing is interesting enough, but the second choice aspect is particularly interesting. The rules in the Iowa caucuses are such that the second choice candidate has a distinct advantage in the ultimate outcome.

Could a "win" for Edwards or Obama in Iowa change the dynamics in the Dem race? Stranger things have happened and it wouldn't break my heart any.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Ultimate Spin

Via Dan Froomkin:

As I noted in yesterday's column, Rove told PBS's Charlie Rose that it was Congress's fault that America invaded Iraq before the administration was really ready, by passing a use-of-force resolution prematurely.

Said Rove: "There was an election coming up in a matter of weeks. We thought it made it too political. We wanted it outside the confines of it. It seemed to make things move too fast. There were things that needed to be done to bring along allies and potential allies abroad."

Rove called it an "untold story."

I really think Rover has gone over the edge. His up is down spinism is beyond the pale on this one. Thanks to Olbermann, who apparently likes shooting fish in barrels, here's the facts:

"It's an untold story because it isn't true. Here is what really happened according to a rogue Web site called Whitehouse.gov. Despite Rove's claim that the White House opposed voting on Iraq in the Fall of 2002, on the first full day of Fall that year the president urged Congress to pass an Iraq resolution, quote, ' Promptly.' A week later, the president and the House Republicans agreed on Iraq resolution. A week after that, President Bush was pleased with the House vote on Iraq. And a week after that, Mr. Bush signed the authorization for the use of military force in Iraq."
Olbermann also recalled a November 2005 Los Angeles Times article quoting Tom Daschle, the former Democratic senator from South Dakota. Here's an excerpt: "The time was September 2002. The place was the White House, at a meeting in which President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney pressed congressional leaders for a quick vote on a resolution authorizing military action against Iraq.

"But Daschle, who as Senate majority leader controlled the chamber's schedule, recalled recently that he asked Bush to delay the vote until after the impending midterm election.

"'I asked directly if we could delay this so we could depoliticize it. I said: "Mr. President, I know this is urgent, but why the rush? Why do we have to do this now?" He looked at Cheney and he looked at me, and there was a half-smile on his face. And he said: "We just have to do this now." '"

Said Olbermann's guest, Arianna Huffington: "I think it's the work of a shameless, remorseless and, perhaps, soulless political animal who cannot help himself even when he's out of the White House trying to rewrite history in his own way."

We have a whole new category. There's liars, statisticians and Rover.

Hillary Poll

You may have heard about a poll released yesterday that showed Hillary Clinton losing to all the Republican candidates. I heard it on the radio and thought it an unusual headline. But it got a lot of shout out.

Now I find out it's bunk. The poll was done by Zogby and is an interactive poll (read: internet poll). These polls are notoriously useless. Besides, everyone knows that Hillary is not at all popular among activists who tend to make up the interneters.

Speaking of Colin ....

This is absolutely wrong on so many levels:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has been talking for some time now about how, if she is elected president, she will ask both Democratic and Republican statesmen to hit the road on her behalf to declare that “bipartisan foreign policy is back” in post-George W. Bush America.

While Mrs. Clinton has pointed to her husband as an emissary, it has been unclear for some time which Republicans she had in mind. But in South Carolina today, speaking to a group of black ministers, Mrs. Clinton dropped a name publicly that she has hinted at privately before.

“I won’t even wait until I’m inaugurated, but as soon as I’m elected I’m going to be asking distinguished Americans of both parties — people like Colin Powell, for example, and others — who can represent our country well, including someone I know very well,” Mrs. Clinton said, according to a Fox News Web report. “Because I want to send a message heard across the world. The era of cowboy diplomacy is over.”

Typical Hillary. The man should never be allowed to hold public office again. Period.

Journalists Poll

Journalists polled by Pew say that at least half of Baghdad, including the Shiite slum of Sadr City, is too dangerous to visit still. The journalists say that Iraq is much more violent now than when they first arrived. A lot of them also think that the US media coverage of Iraq is overly sunny.

Weezilling

In typical "political school of Colin Powell" fashion, Scott McClellan is waffling on his block buster assertion that Bush lied about the Plame outing:

But as Holly Rosenkrantz and Ken Fireman wrote for Bloomberg last week: "McClellan doesn't suggest that Bush deliberately lied to him about Libby's and Rove's involvement in the leak, said Peter Osnos, founder and editor-in-chief of Public Affairs Books, which is publishing McClellan's memoir next year.

"'[Bush] told him something that wasn't true, but the president didn't know it wasn't true,' Osnos said in a telephone interview. 'The president told him what he thought to be the case.'"

Unfortunately this statement is believable. I can just see Rover and/or Cheney (think Charley McCarthy)prompting Bush to pass on misinformation to McClellan.

Meanwhile, in other news, Cheney went in to have his sociopathetic-Frankenstein heart shocked yesterday. That should make him good for another 20,000 lies.

Good Idea

Brent has a wonderful idea from Stephen King on how we can determine if waterboarding is, indeed, torture.

I completely agree.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

We Got the Wrong Bush!

It is all explained here:

The Lord then explained how unfettered evil could be unleashed on the world in 2001 after eight consecutive years of relative peace and prosperity.

“Sometimes, when I’m in a rush and I have one or two billion things going at once, things get forgotten or mixed up. Look at Marissa Tomei winning the Oscar for My Friend Vinnie, for instance, or The Bridges of Madison County.

“Well, back in 1946, when I was busy cleaning up the mess you people made after WWII, I apparently... I can’t believe I’m saying this. I apparently sent this dimension, the one where the rules of science and logic actually apply, the wrong George W. Bush.

The blogger, jurassicpork (love that handle) has a terrific sense of humor.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Political Landscape

Digby has a great post up that gives a nice tactical outline for the Democratic party in 2008. It's a very good read and worth the time.

The short version is that Democratic candidates need to hang George Bush around the neck of any and all candidates in the GOP.

It's Fun! It's Easy!

Ever wonder how everyone seems to afford that new 60 grand S.U.V? Here's an example via Atrios:

The property was purchased in January 2005 for $1,157,000. The combined first and second mortgages totalled $1,156,730 leaving a downpayment of $270. Let’s just call it 100% financing.

By April, they owners were able to find refinancing through Countrywide with a $999,999 first mortgage. This mortgage was an Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate. The minimum payment would be $3,216 per month.

Also in April of 2005, they took out a simultaneous second mortgage for $215,000 pulling out their first $58,000.

So look at their situation: They are living in a million dollar plus home in Turtle Ridge making payments less than those renting, and they “made” $58,000 in their first 4 months of ownership.

Apparently, these owners liked how hard their house was working for them, so they opened a revolving line of credit (HELOC) in August 2005 for $293,000. Did they spend it all? I can’t be sure, but the following certainly suggests they did.

In December of 2005, they extended their HELOC to $397,990.

In June of 2006, they extended their HELOC to $485,000.

In April of 2007, the well ran dry as they did their final HELOC of $491,000. I bet they were pissed when they couldn’t get more money.

So by April 2007, they have a first mortgage (Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate) for $999,999, and a HELOC for $491,000. These owners pulled $333,000 in HELOC money to fuel consumer spending.

Assuming they spent the entire HELOC (does anyone think they didn’t?), and assuming the negative amortization on the first mortgage has increased the loan balance, the total debt on the property exceeds $1,500,000. The asking price of $1,249,000 does not look like a rollback, but if the property actually sells at this price, the lender on the HELOC (Washington Mutual) will lose over $300,000.

It's a pretty big house o' cards out there.

Permanence

So, the ~~Iraq people~~ Iraq government is seeking a permanent presence of U.S. troops in their country. I think Josh Marshall's sums it up quite nicely:

In other words, we're staying in Iraq to defend Nouri al-Maliki against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Future Featured Foto-Op

Al Gore will visit the White House to be honored by Bush for winning the Nobel Peace Prize. The situation will be a feature in acting.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Side Of The Road Torture

Go over to Digby's and watch a video of just how quickly and easily you can be tortured by the police these days.

Remember when watching. No one is required to sign a traffic ticket and the law requires a warning that you will be tased if you are about too.

Read the whole thing and you'll get a sense of just how degraded are our civil liberties these days.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

YouPolls

Here's something interesting. Ever want to conduct your own poll? Now you can.

YouPolls is a place for users to create polls about the topics of their choice, and gauge public opinion about the issues, as they frame them. It's also a place where people can discover content across a wide variety of subjects, share them with friends, and discuss them with others who share the same interests.

I may have to try this out.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

December 15th

Read a suggestion online that sounds good.

A member over at Democratic Underground suggested we make donations to the Kucinich campaign on December 15th. I asked what the significance of that date was. Shows how much I know. It is the date the Bill of Rights took effect in 1791. As the person says:

I don't think it matters whether you can donate $100 or $10, the important thing is that folks donate. Even if Dennis is not your first choice, isn't it worth a donation to his campaign simply to open up the debate for the American people? Right now, the media and their corporate sponsored big money candidates are running everything. I say lets turn the tables on the media and let them know America can no longer be railroaded by their manipulation of information.

I completely agree. Enough is enough.

McClellan Writes A Book

Here's a brief excerpt of a new book by former White House spokesman Scott McClellan:

"The most powerful leader in the world had called upon me to speak on his behalf and help restore credibility he lost amid the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq," writes McClellan. "So I stood at the White house briefing room podium in front of the glare of the klieg lights for the better part of two weeks and publicly exonerated two of the senior-most aides in the White House: Karl Rove and Scooter Libby."

But his press performances weren't based on the facts, McClellan continues.

"There was one problem. It was not true," he writes. "I had unknowingly passed along false information. And five of the highest ranking officials in the administration were involved in my doing so: Rove, Libby, the vice President, the President's chief of staff, and the president himself."

McClellan conducted a number of often-heated press events centering on Plame. In one September 2003 briefing, he expressly denied Rove's involvement in the matter.

I think this should be filed in the Colin Powell file of former officials who seriously hurt the country by knowingly prostituting themselves for Bush and then cashing in later.

Bad Guy

Omar Khadr is a young Canadian citizen currently imprisoned at Guantanamo and facing a military trial for war crimes he allegedly committed in Afghanistan at the age of 15.

In July 2002, US special forces in eastern Afghanistan got a tip that al Qaeda forces were holed up nearby. After hours of fighting, the soldiers entered the bombed-out compound but were met by a grenade thrown over the wall that killed one man. They then found Omar Khadr lying in the rubble, badly hurt and begging them -- in perfect English -- to kill him.

The United States has charged Omar with murder, on the grounds that there was no one else left alive in the compound who could have thrown the grenade, and he now faces a possible sentence of life in prison. The only concession made for his youth was not to ask for the death penalty.

Balance

In the interest of balance, here's some real news on the situation in Iraq. This is one day:

'MOSUL - One policeman was killed and two wounded in a drive-by shooting at a police checkpoint in Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAIJI - A parked car bomb wounded five people, including two children, when it exploded near the house of a policeman in the oil refinery city of Baiji, 180 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR BAQUBA - Gunmen attacked a police station, killing three policemen in a village north of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - An unspecified number [it is said to be 30-40] of foreign security guards [working for the Dubai-based Almco company] were arrested by Iraqi security forces after a shooting in central Baghdad's Karrada district, security spokesman Brigadier-General Qassim Moussawi said. A convoy of four four-wheel drives was passing through a square on the edge of Karrada when a woman crossing the road was shot. The guards were arrested at a nearby checkpoint [none was American] . . .

BAGHDAD - Three bodies were found in different areas of Baghdad on Monday, police said.

BAGHDAD - A car bomb wounded five people in the Bayaa district of southwestern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two people on Palestine Street in northeastern Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - One person was killed and seven were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded near a small bus in Baladiyat district in eastern Baghdad, police said.

SUWAYRA - Police retrieved the bodies of two men bearing signs of torture from the Tigris river on Sunday in the town of Suwayra, south of Baghdad, police said. . .

BASRA - Six members of the same family were killed when a Katyusha rocket hit their house in the oil hub of Basra, 550 km (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said. Three of the dead were children. '

Maybe it's just a glass half full or half empty thing .... unless you live in Iraq.

Monday, November 19, 2007

More Iraq

A comment from Abu Adarvark via Rising Hegemon:

I attended a talk today by Stephen Biddle, a first-rate military strategist who has been working with General Petraeus, about military progress in Iraq...Overall, he presented a rosier portrait than I would have, based on his recent ten day visit to Iraq, but he's a serious guy so I take him seriously - though I noticed that he concentrated almost exclusively on the local level progress and hardly mentioned Maliki or the national political level at all. Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters.

Desperate

Atrios has got this just right:

10 months from now we will still be in Iraq, the war will not be "won," whatever the hell that means, US troops will still be getting killed on a regular basis. And that's the optimistic view.

The idea that Iraq will be a popular success story then is about as absurd as thinking that political advice from conservatives and Republican operatives is given in good faith.

The only hope for Republicans in 2008 is that they can make Iraq a bipartisan disaster, something the Villagers in general are desperate to make happen.

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