September, It's Only A Friedman Away

Speculation is growing about what his majesty Gen. Petraeus will say in September. Thanks to O'Hanlon and Pollack, the media is eating up the idea that "progress" is being made. Here's some of the buzz:

The Los Angeles Times leads with administration officials saying they expect that Gen. David Petraeus will suggest U.S. troops should be moved out of several areas in Iraq where security has improved when he gives his much-awaited progress report in September.

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The LAT points out that even if Petraeus proposes removing troops from certain areas, this wouldn't necessarily mean that he will suggest any kind of withdrawal from Iraq since they could simply be moved to "another hot spot." Some say Petraeus will call for maintaining the current number of troops for an additional six months. But still, officials hope that by stating that progress has been made in certain areas, including the once volatile Anbar province, it could persuade lawmakers to delay calls for a major troop withdrawal. Despite the predictions, it's clear that officials really don't know what Petraeus will recommend, and some have warned that pulling back from areas too quickly could result in a resurgence of violence.

First off, the only real accurate part of the "reporting" is that no one really knows what Petraeus will say. If he does propose another Friedman Unit, it wouldn't be surprising. But the tactics of redeploying units within Iraq to "hot spots" looks a lot like whack-a-mole, Petraeus style (in slow motion rather than quickly). And the most important part is what Petraeus has to say about the strategic situation, which our media seems to not understand. Remember. The entire purpose of tactical security is to make it possible to improve the situation politically. I disagree that the security situation has materially changed:

Everyone fronts the four truck bombs that exploded in northern Iraq and killed at least 175 people (the NYT says 190). "It looks like a nuclear bomb hit the villages," an Iraqi officer said. Everyone mentions the bombs targeted members of a small religious sect, the Yazidis, who have become targets of Sunni attacks after a Yazidi woman was stoned to death for eloping with a Sunni man and converting to Islam. It amounted to the deadliest attack in almost a year and, once again, raised concerns that the recent buildup of U.S. troops has simply moved insurgents to more remote areas. [as is customary, the Pentagon is blaming al Qaeda with no proof]

The U.S. military announced the deaths of nine American service members, including five who were killed in a helicopter crash. Also yesterday, gunmen wearing Iraqi army uniforms and using official government vehicles kidnapped five senior Oil Ministry officials.

The violence is dispersing (as predicted), but not fundamentally changed. And on the political front, there's been reverse progress to date and no number of Friedman Units is going to change that.

Added: Here's a shock for you. The Petraeus report is being written by the White House.

Figures.