Blackwater Roiling

The whole situation with the American contractor Blackwater is heating up and becoming a real problem.

As you likely know, Blackwater contractors were involved in a shootout that resulted in a whole bunch of dead Iraqi's. Al Maliki responded by revoking Blackwater's license to operate in Iraq.

Ok.

One little problem. Without Blackwater, the State Dept. officials are unprotected (along with many other Americans). Contractors make up a huge portion of the force protection inside Iraq. So the U.S. would naturally be resistant to them being banned.

But what if the chronically shaky Maliki backs down on Blackwater? Would it be the nail in his political coffin or simply another incident in proving that he is an American shill.

I will be very surprised if Blackwater is actually expelled. They are simply too important to the security of American personnel in Iraq. And suggestions that the escalation reduction may be delayed to cover for a Blackwater reduction is, in my humble opinion, politically untenable. That leaves Maliki backing down .... again.

The stalemate in Iraq has to be broken at some time in the future. Whether this is the straw on the camel's back is unknown. But at sometime there will be an event that completely changes the dynamics in Iraq. And that change is unlikely to be in a positive direction.