Wednesday, June 18, 2008

How It'll Go

This is from Josh Marshall:

Nate at FiveThirtyEight has a good analysis of the broad swath of recent polls and particularly these polls out this morning from Quinnipiac showing Barack Obama with leads in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. It's only one poll. But this is the first poll that has shown Obama ahead in Florida against either McCain or Clinton. Most models for an Obama win don't include Florida, though Obama's campaign certainly seem intent on contesting it. But that's McCain's firewall. If he can't win Florida, the electoral map starts to look very bleak. Even having to fight for it would put McCain in a hole.
Now, I know that polls this early in the game are pretty stupid. And I don't put much veracity in this one. So why put it up? Because I think this comment by Marshall is prescient.* I think Obama will win many states he's "not supposed to win". With the Bush albatross and his own fumbling/bumbling, McCain will go down in history as the worst Presidential candidate in history, even surpassing .... what's his name?

*assumes no attack on and war with Iran. Even with that, I think Obama wins.

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