Some People Never Learn

Froomkin today is highlighting the CW deadline of September for the President's surge. As I read his take, and the published reports of other journalists and pundits, I'm struck by the level of naivete. Let's start with Froomkin himself:

But this timetable could be for real.

Cumon Dan. You of all people should know better by now.

Jonathan Weisman and Thomas E. Ricks write in The Washington Post: "Congressional leaders from both political parties are giving President Bush a matter of months to prove that the Iraq war effort has turned a corner, with September looking increasingly like a decisive deadline. . . .

"'Many of my Republican colleagues have been promised they will get a straight story on the surge by September,' said Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.). 'I won't be the only Republican, or one of two Republicans, demanding a change in our disposition of troops in Iraq at that point. That is very clear to me.'

Oh please. The quoted Congress critters are the same idiots who have said all this before. What makes us think it's any different this time? What, because they're saying the magic word "September" instead of "several months" they're supposed to be resolute?

First of all, everyone with half a brain knows that when the time comes for evaluation, the knuckleheads in the White House and Pentagon will cite all kinds of evidence of improvement, i.e. twenty new schools painted, taking a stroll in Baghdad with only a brigade protecting you instead of two brigades, electricity being available an hour and a half instead of only one hour per day, blah blah blah. We've heard it all before and will hear it again. I contend that Republicans are still in heavy denial, what I'd call the bargaining phase (i.e. ok, this is the last last time you get a chance to clean your room or you're going to be in trouble for sure!!!! followed by ... and I mean it!).

Second, and more practically. In order to override a Presidential veto, the House must have two thirds (~288 votes) and the Senate needs 17 Republicans to defect against the President. I sincerely doubt that this will happen. There are simply too many Republican nutbars who will refuse to go against the President.

So we're left with four possiblities come September. One is that President Bush comes to his senses and decides to pull troops out (LOLOLOLOLOL). Two is that Republicans defect in large enough numbers to overrride a veto (yeah, right). Third is that the Democrats allow funding to expire, forcing a withdrawal due to running out of money (are you tough enough?). And finally, that the Congress continue to point it's finger and Bush disapprovingly, but give him enough money to keep er' goin' (most likely).

So tell me. Just which of these possibilities do you see materializing?