Awash In Terrorists

One of the chief meme's of those who support the Iraq war is the idea that if we leave Iraq, it will become awash in terrorist. The latest is an terrorist "expert" who claims Iraq will become a terrorist Disneyland if we leave.

Does this really make any sense?

Iraq has a long history of secularization. The Shiites hate al Qaeda as do the Kurds. Insurgent Sunni's have had ongoing battles with al Qaeda types inside Sunni territories. So what would make anyone think that Iraq becomes a terrorist haven? Even with Iranian influence in Iraq, does anyone really think that Iranians want a rogue terrorist nation next door? Iran is a fundamentalist nation. Yet even they have only used "terrorism" as a military tactic in their war with Israel, hardly a "disneyland for terrorist" nation and hardly al Qaeda. And how about Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia? Do they really want instability in the form of a terrorist-Afghan-like country in the heart of the Middle East?

This thinking occurs when talking heads become the victim of their own spin. The need to have Iraq and terrorism closely related for electoral reasons has permeated strategic thinking. The war in Iraq is not about fighting terrorism. The war in Iraq is about 1) fighting an occupation and 2) a civil war between factions fighting for control of the country and it's oil. These factions are institutionalists who want to derive benefit from controlling a stable country and economy. Note the word "stable". That's who providing the insurgents, weaponry and money for the war. Those who are "terrorists" are merely exploiting the situation of profound anarchy that exists. It would seem to me that the second group to go (after the Americans) would be those other factions on the fringe who destabilize the competing parties.

As with Vietnam where we were incorrectly told that with the communists taking over Vietnam there would be a dominoe effect throughout the region and world, conservatives are wrong in their prognostications about the impact of a U.S. withdrawal. The sooner we get our heads screwed on straight, the sooner we stop bleeding into Iraq. And the sooner the competing factions do what they need to do, even if it's a civil war, to decide who is going to be the stable ruling faction in Iraq. It's a big prize for the regional powers, but has little to do with sponsoring terrorism that is promoted by small bands of nutbars who are little more than sociopaths with a cause.