New, Improved Iraq!

I've been thinking a bit about the news that U.S. casualties are at a low point for October. Let's set aside the fact that it's still chaos in Iraq and that civilians are still dying. Let's also set aside that the U.S. is using more airstrikes and that ethnic cleansing has made it easier for everybody to get along.

If I were an insurgent in Iraq, why would you choose to die at this point? Bush is on his way out and all the likely Presidential types are recommending some sort modification of U.S. involvement in Iraq which leads to at a minimum, a smaller footprint. So why die now?

This seems to me to be a period of consolidation. Anyone with a serious interest in winning the civil war in Iraq is likely recruiting, training and arming for the upcoming civil war. Attacks are becoming more strategic, i.e. assassinations, and alliances are being formed. The ultimate outcome will be an anti-American Shiite leaning Islamic state with a close alliance to Iran. And the region will be in turmoil as the Israeli's and Sunni's get more fearful. Then we'll see fireworks again.