Oily Situation

You may have heard that oil hit a new high yesterday at $86/barrel. Fortunately, or unfortunately (depending on you point of view), this is likely just this beginning. The IEA (International Energy Agency) has just released it's annual forecast for worldwide production. Note, when reading this quote, the IEA is known for being highly optimistic as it's forecasts are based on projections provided by producers. And producers routinely lie:

World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in the middle of 2009. According to the IEA, the current peak production of 86.13 mbd occurred on July 2006 and only one year later, June 2007 total liquids production fell to an unexpectedly low 84.50 mbd. A good increase up to 85.10 mbd occurred for September 2007. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing.

Did you see it? Total liquids production is still at the 2006 peak and is forecast to fall off the peak in 2009.

Doesn't that sound like peak oil to you?