Thursday, November 29, 2007

Interesting Poll

This poll is somewhat interesting:

A new Rasmussen Reports poll in Iowa finds the Democratic presidential race in a three way statistical tie.

Sen. Hillary Clinton leads with 27%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 25%, and John Edwards at 24%. Bill Richardson is the only other Democrat in double-digits at 10%.

Key finding: "In terms of second-choices in Iowa, John Edwards tops the list of candidates. He is the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 18%, Clinton for 16%, and Richardson for 15%. Second choice preferences are especially important given the nature of the Iowa caucuses. In a particular caucus setting, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates."
The dead heat thing is interesting enough, but the second choice aspect is particularly interesting. The rules in the Iowa caucuses are such that the second choice candidate has a distinct advantage in the ultimate outcome.

Could a "win" for Edwards or Obama in Iowa change the dynamics in the Dem race? Stranger things have happened and it wouldn't break my heart any.

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