Tuesday, January 1, 2008

We Can Only Hope

An InsiderAdvantage tracking poll in Iowa shows a statistical tie between Sen. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in the Democratic presidential race with Sen. Barack Obama starting to lag.

Clinton leads with 30%, followed by Edwards at 29%, and Obama at 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.4%.

Important finding: Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

"Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be: Edwards 41%, Clinton 34% and Obama 25%."
Then there's this interesting quote:
"If the crowd numbers are that huge, and ours are this small, and they're going to kick our ass then there's no reason to explain it. Just show up and kick our ass. It's better if you don't say anything about it. Anytime anybody starts throwing those kinds of things around, it's because they're in deep shit."

-- Edwards strategist Joe Trippi, quoted by The Nation, suggesting Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is in trouble.
Personally, my wallet is in the warm up circle. But if Edwards wins, I start paying off.

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