Tuesday, February 5, 2008


Here's the latest on the polls. This particular chart is plotting the averages of all the polls for the Dems:

As I've said over the past week, it's a matter of momentum (Obama) over holding on (Clinton). Whatever happens, I don't think Super Tuesday is going to finish it for either Democratic candidate.

Seems to me that this point made by Josh Marshall is most salient and pushes me to lean toward an Obama "upset":

One point to keep in mind as we watch the results tonight. A lot will depend on whether the race has now shaped up with both Clinton and Obama and roughly-matched and known contenders, or whether, because of her history and name recognition, Clinton is the de facto incumbent vs. Obama the challenger. It could make a very, very big difference because a number of the polls we're seeing have high undecideds. And it is a very reliable rule of thumb that undecideds break for the challenger.
Given the Edwards factor, which is clearly showing up in Obama's numbers, I think the incumbent rule will be very operative today.

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