Wednesday, March 19, 2008

The Will O' The People

The Clinton people are very busy right now trying to convince any super delegates that will listen that Hillary should be the candidate based on the "will of the people". What they specifically mean (and are hoping for) is that Clinton will eek out a victory in the overall popular vote during the primaries. Although her chances are even slim in doing this, they are better than her chances of winning more delegates.

Anonymous Liberal (disclaimer: an Obama supporter) makes a cogent argument about why Clinton's claim about the popular vote is bogus:

Consider that turnout in primaries is, on average, about five times higher than in caucuses. What that means is that you're likely get more net votes from a narrow primary win than you are from a blowout caucus win in the same state. Assume, for instance, that 100,000 people participate in a caucus in State X and the vote breaks down 70/30 for Obama. That's a net vote gain of 40,000 votes for Obama. But if that same state held a primary, Obama would only need to win by a 54/46 margin to receive the same net gain in votes.
Makes sense. Caucus states simply don't draw the voters the way popular vote primaries do. And it's no secret that Obama has done much better in caucus states.

I'll say again. The rules are the rules. To change party rules at this point will likely mean some sort of civil war. Candidates are nominated based on winning a majority of the delegates to the convention. If the party thinks Hillary should be it, let the super delegates throw it to her with delegate votes based on her qualifications, not on some proposed BS metric from lying statistics.

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