Benchmark Flaw

Bush is operating in Iraq on a number of flawed assumptions. One of them is that political benchmarks can be achieved, showing progress in Iraq:

The New York Times leads with word that the Iraqi national oil law is likely to face some strong opposition in parliament as Sunni and Kurdish officials seem reluctant to support the legislation that would determine how oil revenue is distributed. This is bad news for the White House, which was hoping the issue, long touted as a key mark of progress in Iraq, would be resolved quickly.

I have three problems with benchmarks.

1). I have never seen a goal successfully imposed on someone. The goal must be self-imposed in order to be successful. Any time a goal is "imposed", the imposee (new word!) will usually find a way to thwart the goal unless they fully accept it as their own.

2). Iraqi benchmarks are fluid, and those who are responsible for measuring them will lie. The administration (both in the U.S. and Iraq) are in-credible. Any reporting of progress is suspect and usually wrong. Therefore any benchmarks will continually be the subject of controversy, allowing a big opening for further Friedman Units.

3). For the Iraq politicians to agree to benchmarks requires that they accept the American occupation (a "chicken and egg discussion that is rampant between U.S. liberals and conservatives). Because Bush needs benchmark success, a sure way to torpedo the guy is to never agree and never implement benchmarks. One thing that most Iraqi's agree on is that they want the U.S. out. The exception to that is the highest Iraqi leadership that would certainly be exiled if not killed without U.S. support. Ironically, Bush has achieved one of his goals, a democratically elected parliament that is representative of the Iraqi people. Who among any of the coalitions has any big motivation to hand Bush a success? Example:

"The whole problem is because this law was made in a hurry, and the Americans were rushing everyone to do it," a Kurdish legislator said. Meanwhile, the NYT notes, the main bloc of Sunni legislators said the law shouldn't even be discussed at a time when the country's security situation is so dire.

So look to the situation to remain stable .... and deadly .... in Iraq until we're out. And we won't be out until either Bush leaves office or Congressional Republicans revolt.

Stay tuned!