No News ... On The Surface Anyway

Ok, let's do some speculation for a change. I know, I know. That would be something reaaaaallly different. Right?

How about this story:

The Los Angeles Times leads with word that U.S. troops will be focusing on rooting out al-Qaida in Iraq during their upcoming offensive operations this summer. U.S. commanders say this shift in strategy, which takes emphasis away from the initial stated goal of targeting Shiite militias and death squads in Baghdad, is in preparation for the withdrawal timeline that they see coming from Congress in the next few months.

I hadn't really considered this until just as I was reading the story. Has the Pentagon decided that it's over in Iraq and we'd better take our last best shots? Targeting "al Qaeda" strongholds would seem to be in the U.S. interest prior to a withdrawal.

Unfortunately, as with most U.S. policy under Bush, it's doomed to fail simply because of the same problems that have been resident in Iraq since the beginning, i.e. not enough troops, too much geography, too much popular support and being an occupier. But the story is nevertheless interesting as it may be an indicator of the perceptions in the Pentagon.

U.S. officials in Iraq are increasingly becoming convinced that militias are likely to reduce their attacks once a withdrawal timeline is established, [no shit sherlock!] but the opposite will be true for al-Qaida in Iraq. So, while insisting that Shiite militias are still a priority, U.S. troops will focus more on al-Qaida in Iraq and other Sunni militias. Notably, officials don't seem to be expecting any miracles, and instead say their goal is to create enough stability so that Iraqi forces can have some hope of success once the number of U.S. troops begins to decrease. The LAT gets extra credit today for noting something that might be obvious but is often lost in the coverage: "Despite its name, the extent of [al-Qaida in Iraq's] link to Osama bin Laden is unclear."

You can see the flaws. Hoping for a new pony in the form of Iraqi cooperation to create enough stability so a political solution can be reached is proof of a continuing lack of understanding of the conditions on the ground. Al Qaeda is not the problem and will go away once the civil war is resolved. The treatment of the Baathists is the problem, and it also will not go away without a political solution.