Turning The Corner

There's a new conventional wisdom bubbling up in the media. E.J. Dionne, who I respect alot, spells it out (via Froomkin):

"It's not about whether the United States should pull out troops. That is now inevitable. The real challenge is to figure out the right timetable for withdrawal, whether a residual force should be left there and which American objectives can still be salvaged."

I disagree. On a couple of fronts. First of all, has there ever been a question that we would ultimately withdraw? Sure, some said it could be generations, some said months, but I don't think anyone thought we would be there forever. Well, maybe no one except Cheney. And hasn't the question of having permanent bases a residual force left in Iraq an old question as well? I don't see anything real new in this assessment.

My larger disagreement is with the thinking that Bush might flex on the issue of withdrawal. I don't believe it will happen. At best, I think Bush will want to kick the problem over to the next President who can then own the loss. Bush cares not about public opinion, effective strategy, people's lives or the politics. He's got nothing to lose except his own self-esteem. And he'll do anything to stop from losing that. The only way our troops will be out of Iraq before 2008 is if Congress (meaning the Republican watch group) forces him out via funding. Any of this media speculation is, at best, the moaning of Bush underlings who have less skin in the game than Bush, wishing for a new pony at Xmas, that their boss will come to his senses.