Crystal Ball

We're going to be getting some gross domestic product numbers soon. If you'll recall, this important measure of the economic output of the U.S. is the key measure of growth and economic vitality. The last quarter saw very sluggish growth. I'm reading lots of prognostications that next quarter should be very good .... like around 3%.

But then I'm also seeing many stories like this one. And this. And this. It's looking like the second quarter GDP is going to be an anomaly, high due to inventory adjustments. Meanwhile the inflation and the housing mess seems to be winding it's way to consumers, who have been showing real signs of weakness. If Chucky (the consumer) stops buying, the economy will stall and this Christmas could be one with more coal in stockings than plasma teevee's. As always, we shall see.