Casualties Spinning

There are a number of stories out there (I'm sure you can hear about it on the national teevee news) about how American casualties in Iraq during July were down significantly. I must admit, when I first read the story I was pleased. Then reality hits:

Juan Cole:

2007 saw the deadliest July for US troops since the Iraq War began. It also saw a 23% rise in Iraqi deaths over June. July is like a blast furnace in Iraq, with temperatures approaching 120 degrees F. in the shade. Guerrillas typically lie low in this unfavorable environment, compared to other seasons, and so the casualty rates go down. Instead, this year the killing season has gone on as if it were spring.

...

Number of US troops killed in Iraq, July, 2006: 43.

Not only were the US deaths unprecedentedly high in July, the March through June death statistics were also very high.

And, June saw the highest number of over-all attacks since the war began.

AP adds: "Iraqi deaths rose, with at least 2,024 civilians, government officials and security forces killed in July, about 23 percent more than the 1,640 who died violently in June, according to Associated Press figures compiled from police reports nationwide."

Pentagon spokesmen are attempting to portray this near doubling of July troop deaths as a sign of improvement on the security side, counting from June rather than looking at past July figures-- and I fear some corporate media are falling for it.

So,there were fewer American deaths than in June 07 but 23% more than the comparable July 06. And while there were fewer Americans dead, Iraqi's are getting slaughtered still.

In case you haven't noticed, there's a major news offensive to portray Iraq as improving in preparation for the kool-aid drinking Petraeus report in a few weeks.

I fear it may be working.

Iraq is not improving. The military campaign has simply escalated and dispersed the violence while the political solutions remain invisible. The media just never takes the time or trouble to put any context into a story. Rather, they simply act as stenographers for whatever the government says one news story at a time. The resulting narrative of a grouping of these stories is the government propaganda. Thank god for blogs.

There is going to need to be a huge pushback by progessives in September. The default momentum is going to be for leaders and popular opinion to want, desperately want to believe that everything is improving in Iraq. But at this point the evidence is still showing the opposite. To fight the momentum of belief is going to be very very difficult.