The Deal

Atrios, ever the blogger of few words, summarizes what appears to be the impending "deal":

As we head into the Month Which Everything Changes, here's the basic outline of The Deal:

1) Democrats, to court Republicans, agree to declare a bit of victory ("situation improving...")

2) They compromise on a bill which suggests very strongly that maybe, just maybe, if security conditions "continue to improve" that Bush should consider, if he wants, bringing some troops home. But, you know, nothing that constrains his authority as Supreme Leader to do whatever the hell he wants.

3) Since troop levels can't be sustained, this is in fact what happens beginning April so that by November of 2008, the number of troops in Iraq is just about precisely what it was two years (!) previously, when the awesome surge began.


4) Everyone owns the war now.

Bush is now openly saying that he hopes for enough "success" in Iraq such that the 2008 candidates "get comfortable" with maintaining American troops in Iraq.

Regardless of what the administration is bombarding the media with, this is the situation:

Tactically: The mission in Iraq of increasing security in Iraq has been a success .... everywhere there are concentrated American troops. Thus Baghdad has improved while southern Iraq is worse. American and Iraqi deaths are up from last year with summer being the "quiet" time. Like all occupations and insurgencies, we have and will continue to win every "battle" but lose because of a simple fact. Iraqis insurgent factions are at home, enjoy popular support and can be as patient as necessary. Americans are far from "at home", have no support in Iraq and can easily be bled dry. Tactically, we can only enjoy very limited success for short periods of time.

Strategically: Iraq continues an enormous failure. There is no central political governing authority. The Iraq government is illegitimate, and any American backed government will be immediately illegitimate. There has been no progress on solving the divisive issues. Strategically, Iraq continues to deteriorate.

Like it or not, those are the facts. No matter what Bush or the media say, it's only a matter of time before we lose. The only thing we can successfully do is cut our losses. The sooner the better. Unfortunately ego and imperialistic thinking are huge obstacles to preventing a long drawn out continuing quaqmire.

Update: One of the reasons that violence is down inside Baghdad is because the Shiites have won in the battle of ethnic cleansing.

Update: More on the new Iraq.