In A Nutshell

This is an excerpt from an AP report on the impact of Bush's policy on Iraqi politicians:

BAGHDAD (AP) — The debate in Washington over troop numbers is intense. But in Baghdad, there's been little sense of alarm or urgency among the Iraqi politicians who would have the most to lose if the United States decides to begin a major pull back.

Both Sunni and Shiite leaders have been largely convinced for weeks that President Bush would press to keep forces in Iraq until he turns the White House over to a successor.

That has set up one of the grand ironies of the troop build-up that began early this year.

Washington threw more personnel and firepower into Iraq to give the Iraqi leadership more room to settle disputes and adopt U.S.-backed reforms.

But the signals this week of just modest troop withdrawals ahead — perhaps back to pre-surge levels of about 130,000 — mean the Shiite-led government feels little pressure to accelerate work toward true political reconciliation.

Instead, they are focusing their energy on shoring up their positions: outflanking political challengers, leaning on more-radical Shiite factions to behave and flirting with Sunni sheiks to build personal alliances.

This seems about right. Think about it. What is the constituency for a withdrawal? I submit there isn't much of one. A very few leaders in Iraq can use the extra time to siphon off more money while continuing to position themselves for an inevitable American withdrawal.

In a larger context, the Sunni's can use a continued presence to recruit, train and equip fighters for a coming battle for power. They have the leadership history, the technology and the command/control abilities. Shiites can use a continued presence to also recruit, train and equip using the Americans as their posters for recruitment. Shiites have less of the technology to fight, but they have the numbers. Internationally, our enemies love seeing us bogged down in Iraq. It takes the heat off them.

Put in this context, there really isn't much of an Iraqi constituency for a withdrawal. The majority of American voters want a withdrawal, but they are apathetic enough to allow our own leadership to continue to bathe their ego's in denial. Thus, the war continues and the people continue to die for nothing but the fact that people powerful enough to stop it simply don't.