Wednesday, January 9, 2008

I Confess

In my predictions about the outcome of the NH primary, I fell in a trap. It's a common trap of which you'd think I'd be aware. I fell for the media's conventional wisdom based on flawed polls that Clinton would lose.


Now the big CW is that Clinton staged a "comeback". Keith Olberman (the only one of the gasbags worth a dime) asked the question, "can someone who has been the front-runner and presumed nominee "comeback""? Only if you believe the media hype.

My theory is that Clinton "held on". She's had a large lead in NH previously. With the time between New Hampshire and Iowa so short, I simply think the libertarian based voting public saw Obama as a threat and too liberal with most of the crossover vote from conservatives going to Clinton. Also women in NH, perhaps a bit more feminist than in Iowa, went with a woman candidate.

No matter the punditry and opinions, the fact is the media got it totally wrong .... again. I haven't really watched much of the cable news coverage for a long time, but watching them last night was like having your fingernails torn out. The likes of Timmah Russert gasbagging away made me want to gag, particularly when he looked like he was going to have an orgasm over the whole horserace thing. And the topper was Tweety Matthews opining that NH was the result of the "Bradley effect" whereby white folk simply can't bring themselves to vote for a black man (I have images in my mind of a Dr. Strangelove situation where a white guy fights with his hand as he tries to pull the lever for Obama). These folks don't know any more than yours truly (and you) about what's going on in the electorate. I'd have been better off putting on an old movie.

Well, now it's onward and upward to the next primaries. Ironically, a system designed to have a nominee early may actually end up with a floor fight at the convention.

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