Tuesday, March 25, 2008


I'm shocked:

The New York Times leads, and the Washington Post off-leads, word that in a videoconference with the top commander in Iraq and the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, President Bush was presented a plan that would put a stop to any further troop withdrawals after July.
So the "surge", which was to allow a period of time for political reconciliation, is going to result in a net gain of troops permanently stationed in Iraq. And political reconciliation? Zip. Meanwhile, the Mahdi army is getting a bit itchy around Iraq and violence is on a upswing.

Of course, the fundamental flaw is the notion that the escalation caused a reduction in violence. Any reduction in violence that has occurred is a combination of more U.S. troops resulting in an insurgent dispersal, paying off the Sunni's, everyone reloading, and a likely decision by insurgents to lay low until an impending U.S. withdrawal.

Who knows what result Bush's decision will have on the ground in Iraq, but make no mistake that a civil war is going to happen in Iraq ..... sooner or later. To me the only important question is just how many Americans will be in the crossfire.

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