Thursday, April 24, 2008

Less Likely

It's ironic that Hillary's win in Pennsylvania, being as narrow as it was (despite the media hype), actually makes it less likely she can win the nomination:

A Political Wire reader runs the math and notes that before the Pennsylvania, Sen. Hillary Clinton needed to get at least 63% of the vote in the remaining states to have a chance to win more delegates than Sen. Barack Obama.

Clinton now needs 296 of the remaining 435 delegates up for grabs (or approximately 68% of the vote.) In contrast, Obama needs 140 of the remaining 435 to have the majority (or about 32% of the vote.)

Therefore, despite her win in the Keystone State, the results have in fact made it less likely Clinton can win.

Considering that most polls predict Obama should win North Carolina by a healthy margin and both campaigns think Indiana will be close, the chances of a Clinton victory are actually lower than ever.
Added: Here is some more commentary/context on Pennsylvania that you're unlikely to ever hear on the teevee.

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