Goodwin's Law

I'm afraid that former Gen. Abizaid stepped into the trap of Goodwin's Law.

William Arkin reports on a speech given by Abizaid. Part of that analysis reports:

On the unconventional side, Abizaid called for the United States to "disrupt" and "contest" the virtual space enemies use to further their anti-West cause. He spoke of the need to defeat the enemy before its extremist views are accepted by the majority of Middle Easterners and the world is thrust into another world war. According to the USNI blogger reporting on the speech, Abizaid compared the current situation in the Middle East to Germany in the 1930s, when Hitler took power even though the majority of Germans didn't support his politics or his fascist ideologies.

*Sigh*. The best and the brightest. You'd think Vietnam never happened. The same arguments were used then. But I have a question? How much is communism a threat in the thirty years since we left Vietnam?

As usual, Abizaid is right and he's wrong (whick Arkin correctly points out). Yes, Islamic extremist gaining a foothold is not a good thing. But no, using the military to stop it is not only wrong and immoral, it won't freakin' work!

Our middle eastern allies .... and dictators .... are properly concerned that rebellious and extremist forces are a threat to their regimes. But what we haven't realized is that there is a big difference between "rebellious" forces and "extremist" forces. A U.S. military presence creates more extremists while the dictators themselves create more rebels. When dissatisfied citizens are left with no other choices to express dissatisfaction, they'll go with those that offer rebellion via extremism rather than nothing. Our absence opens up the possiblity for more moderate forces to implement change.

The Arab street is going to properly demand change in the status quo. That is a given. What vehicle is chosen to implement that change will be in their hands as well. A imperialistic (or the perception of an imperialistic) force will influence their choices to the most vocal, violent and tribal of their instincts. If we get out of the way, there's an opportunity for the middle eastern countries to join the 21st century with a minimum of bloodshed.

I wish we didn't have to have this ground-hog-day moment. But it seems we are destined to learn it again.