Oil Deal

Juan Cole reports on a draft "oil deal" in Iraq:

Reuters is reporting that the Kurds have reached an agreement with other parliamentarians on changes to a draft petroleum bill. These changes do not address, as Reuters incorrectly reports, "the equitable distribution of petroleum receipts." There is nothing in the draft law about such distributions, which according to the constitution would require separate legislation by parliament. The agreement is rather about the rights of regional confederacies such as the Kurdistan Regional Government to sign contracts with foreign companies independently of Baghdad. The [Shiite] Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), which dominates provincial administrations in the south, is pushing for the formation of a Shiite regional government on the analogy of Kurdistan, which would also have claims on petroleum finds in its area.

The details of the agreement were not released.

I'm far from an expert on this issue. But two things stick out at me. First, the devil in such issues is usually in the details which are "yet to be released". What has been agreed to looks to be a very very preliminary framework to try and work to ultimate agreement. Remember, all these Iraqi politicians go on vacation for the summer in about a week (hey, what's the rush?).

Second, and likely most important, the referenced article doesn't mention the Sunni's anywhere. This goes along with the revenue distribution issue. While the Sunni's are a minority, they are still a sizeable portion of the country's population and include some of the better academics, professionals, and military personnel. Plus the Sunni's are well supported by other Sunni nations (can you say Saudia Arabia?) that are a majority in the region. Without a political solution that includes the Sunnis (a solution that goes well beyond the issue of oil), the war will continue.